DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. Another trough is out in the Pacific. The Pacific trough will finally push eastward late this week into the West in two pieces, one that goes through Canada this weekend, and another that slowly moves into the Southwest this weekend. That will force the ridge eastward.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western trough will continually be reinforced and push pieces of energy through the continent through the end of the month. The ridge will not be strong enough to contain them all, but it will redevelop in the wake of those pieces of energy.

The U.S. and European models are closer together, but have changed dramatically over the last couple of days. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will work across northern areas over the weekend, bringing some showers there and a drop in temperature, especially the Northeast for early next week. A system will spin around the West this weekend, moving into the Plains early next week and then head east the rest of the week. Another system should move through the West in the middle of next week and get into the Plains late next week or weekend as we see a much more active weather pattern taking shape across the U.S. for the rest of November.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...95 AT 6 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OGILBY CA AND 6 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GLAMIS CA

LOW TUE...3 AT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GATLINBURG TN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...JUNEAU, AK 0.30 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. Another trough is out in the Pacific. The Pacific trough will finally push eastward late this week into the West in two pieces, one that goes through Canada this weekend, and another that slowly moves into the Southwest this weekend. That will force the ridge eastward. The western trough will continually be reinforced and push pieces of energy through the continent through the end of the month. The ridge will not be strong enough to contain them all, but it will redevelop in the wake of those pieces of energy.

The U.S. and European models are closer together, but have changed dramatically over the last couple of days. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will work across northern areas over the weekend, bringing some showers there and a drop in temperature, especially the Northeast for early next week. A system will spin around the West this weekend, moving into the Plains early next week and then head east the rest of the week. Another system should move through the West in the middle of next week and get into the Plains late next week or weekend as we see a much more active weather pattern taking shape across the U.S. for the rest of November.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move through on Friday and Saturday with limited showers and a drop in temperature. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with several moving through. With temperatures falling to more seasonable readings this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures will remain above normal temperatures for the rest of the week. A system will move in this weekend or early next week and bring widespread precipitation to the region. Models are still working out the timing and coverage of precipitation, but could mean some snow in the north and strong winds. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers will develop in the Great Lakes on Wednesday with warmer air moving into the region. A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers through this weekend as well as a drop in temperature. Another system is likely to bring showers to the region early next week as the pattern gets more active for the second half of the month.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. The pattern may become more active starting next week. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front will move into the country on Wednesday and is forecast to produce quite a bit of rain into the weekend. One more front will move into southern areas this weekend and the forecast has increased precipitation along it. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil early next week and stalling, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture is still really good across much of the country. A front will exit on Wednesday after bringing through scattered showers on Tuesday, and one more front will move through this weekend. The forecast has increased showers with that front, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on fronts with less rainfall potential for the rest of November. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward. The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue across western areas in a couple of waves for the rest of the week. Cooler and wetter weather are in the forecast for next week. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent as winter crops start to go dormant across the north.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A system moving through is producing some limited showers, but not enough to turn around the situation for those areas in a deficit. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moving through eastern areas late this week and weekend could bring scattered showers, but areas will be missed.

Drier conditions are forecast there next week with showers increasing across the west. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest beginning, there is little time for rain to be beneficial. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for the remaining corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, well above normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above to well above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, well above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to below normal south and near to above normal north Thursday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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