Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A change in the weather pattern, low water levels on the Mississippi River, and one last week of good weather in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

COLD, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW LEAVING MIDWEST

Lake-effect snow added up to some hefty amounts around the Great Lakes over the past couple of days. Cold air will be moving out of the western Midwest on Tuesday and eastern areas on Wednesday, with warmer air replacing it into next week. A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers on Tuesday into Wednesday. Otherwise, the region will be drier until this weekend, as models try to figure out how to develop a system across the middle of the country.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures are rising in the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday with above-normal temperatures for the rest of the week. A system will move in this weekend. Models are unsure of its development, but could mean widespread precipitation and strong winds into early next week. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

QUIET, BUT BREEZY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air in the Northern Plains has been replaced by warm air here with some breezy winds on Tuesday. A system will move through on Friday and Saturday, but with limited showers. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with several moving through. With temperatures falling to more seasonable readings this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW

Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The Delta region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. No significant precipitation is forecast this week, but the pattern may become more active starting next week. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

HEAVY RAIN FOR BRAZIL

A front has settled into central and northern Brazil where showers will continue this week. Another front will move into the country on Wednesday and is forecast to produce quite a bit of rain as well. One more front will move into southern areas this weekend and the forecast has increased precipitation along it. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil early next week and stalling, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season.

LAST WEEK OF GOOD RAIN FOR ARGENTINA?

Soil moisture is still really good across much of Argentina. Another front will bring showers through on Tuesday and Wednesday, and one more will move through this weekend. The forecast has increased showers with that second front, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on less frequent frontal passages, or at least fronts with less rainfall potential. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward. The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure.

OVERALL GOOD CONDITIONS FOR WINTER WHEAT ESTABLISHMENT IN MUCH OF EUROPE

Scattered showers went across southern Europe this weekend into Monday. Limited showers have also moved through western areas and continue in a couple of waves this week as well. Milder and wetter weather are in the forecast for next week. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent.

A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE BLACK SEA REGION

Showers in October improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the Black Sea region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A system will bring through limited showers over the next couple of days, but not enough to turn around the situation for those areas in a deficit. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Drier conditions are favored in Australia for most of the week, but a system moving through eastern areas late this week and weekend could bring scattered showers. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest beginning, there is little time for rain to be beneficial. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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