DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...97 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...15 AT 6 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRANTSBURG, WI, 8 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MINONG, WI, AND 4 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LAKE SHERWOOD, WI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...SEATTLE, WA 0.59 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough moving through the ridge located in the West and Central.

Another trough is found in Hudson Bay, and yet another trough in located in the North Pacific. The North Pacific trough will send one more clipper over the ridge this weekend, but this one will combine with the Hudson Bay trough and deepen across the East, but only briefly as it moves out early next week. The Pacific trough will eventually move into the West late next week or weekend and push the ridge eastward, making for a new pattern for the second half of November that should create larger storm systems and be warmer.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar despite all of the systems moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A shot of cold air will produce some lake-effect snow in the prone areas near the Great Lakes on Monday, but the cold air will move out quickly as another clipper moves across Canada around the middle of next week and actually brings in some warmer air to the eastern half of the country. A new system is likely to move into the West late next week but may come through the country in pieces over the weekend and into the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): One last clipper will move through for Friday into Saturday, which will be able to produce a little bit of accumulating snow on Saturday. Temperatures will fall drastically with that system, but only briefly as temperatures rise quickly on Monday. Breezy winds continue to be an issue in this clipper pattern, but should slow down after the warmer air moves back into the region early next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): The storm track continues to be well to the north through next week, which continues to leave the region drier despite some fronts moving through. One of those fronts will bring down some cold air for Sunday and Monday, but temperatures will quickly rise afterward. The dryness is not a major concern in November as falling temperatures throughout the month will eventually get wheat into more of a dormant state. It will help with harvest and fieldwork, instead. A pattern change may bring through potential for more rainfall for the second half of the month.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The region is seeing yet another clipper move through on Friday with scattered showers and breezy winds.

One more moving through this weekend will bring down a blast of much colder air for a couple of days. That cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes could add up to some significant lake-effect snow in some prone areas. Temperatures will quickly rise early- to mid-next week.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels are falling on the Mississippi River. Very little precipitation from a couple of fronts this week and complete dryness next week will mean that water levels will return to some hazardous levels for the second half of November if the pattern doesn't change to bring more systems through the middle of the country. That pattern may be coming, but it does not guarantee improved precipitation chances in the right areas.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front remains active with showers in central and northern Brazil through next week as it gets reinforced by a front moving up from Argentina this weekend and again in the middle of next week.

Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans and the need to replant. It's not perfect, but showers may be heavier into next week and be more beneficial.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture is still rather good for early growth on corn and sunflowers. Soils are primed for soybean planting which will be increasing this month. Winter wheat has been in really good shape, though consistent rainfall has increased disease pressure. Two more fronts will move through -- one here on Friday and another Tuesday and Wednesday, which keep conditions overall favorable. However, longer-range models indicate that the weather pattern may turn drier afterward, a possible turning point in the overall weather conditions.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Drier weather has been in place across the eastern half of the continent this week, but systems moving through the Atlantic have been producing some additional rain from the UK down through Spain. One of those systems will likely move through the Mediterranean with beneficial showers this weekend and early next week, catching southeastern Europe with showers as well. Yet another wave of rain is forecast to move through the continent next weekend and the following week. Weather conditions are still overall favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers in October have improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. A stretch of drier weather continues through the weekend. Some showers may be possible next week which may be helpful for some areas, but the coverage looks low. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. If showers do not come with the warmth, wheat plants will continue growing in some fairly insufficient soil moisture. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system will move through eastern areas over the next couple of days, but with limited precipitation that will be beneficial for some areas and miss others. Spotty showers are in the forecast for next week as well. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature, there is less time for rain to be beneficial before harvest starts up and cotton and sorghum are planted.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable, though heavy rain in early October may have caused issues. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, falling Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers through Sunday. Lake-effect snow Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, falling Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers northeast Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, falling Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near normal Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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