DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central, a trough in eastern Canada, one in western Canada, and another trough in the North Pacific. The North Pacific trough will continue to send systems into the ridge this week, with most of them going over the top of it and into the East, a typical clipper pattern.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A bigger trough will develop in the East this weekend, but only briefly as it moves out early next week. The Pacific trough will continue to bombard the ridge next week and may eventually push it eastward in mid-November.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar despite a bunch of systems moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will move through northern areas this weekend, and it will pull down some colder air for the eastern half of the country for a few days, resulting in some lake-effect snow in the prone areas near the Great Lakes.

Another clipper seems poised to move through northern areas around the middle of next week, which may actually bring in some warmer air to the eastern half of the country by the end of next week. We may have to watch for a bigger system moving into the West in the middle of next week. It may have some implications for the rest of the country going into mid-November as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...96 AT 6 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GLAMIS, CA AND 2 MILES SOUTH OF MOHAWK, AZ

LOW MON...13 AT 18 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DILLON, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...NORFOLK, VA 0.79 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central, a trough in eastern Canada, one in western Canada, and another trough in the North Pacific. The North Pacific trough will continue to send systems into the ridge this week, with most of them going over the top of it and into the East, a typical clipper pattern. A bigger trough will develop in the East this weekend, but only briefly as it moves out early next week. The Pacific trough will continue to bombard the ridge next week and may eventually push it eastward in mid-November.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar despite a bunch of systems moving through. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A clipper will move through northern areas this weekend, and it will pull down some colder air for the eastern half of the country for a few days, resulting in some lake-effect snow in the prone areas near the Great Lakes.

Another clipper seems poised to move through northern areas around the middle of next week, which may actually bring in some warmer air to the eastern half of the country by the end of next week. We may have to watch for a bigger system moving into the West in the middle of next week. It may have some implications for the rest of the country going into mid-November as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A couple of clippers will move through over the next week that should bring some limited precipitation and variable temperatures. Breezy winds may also be an issue, which would be more of a concern for combine fires when the humidity is too low.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): The storm track will be well to the north going into next week, which should leave the region drier despite some fronts moving into or through the region. That could make for some variable temperatures and occasionally breezy winds. The dryness is not a major concern in November as falling temperatures throughout the month will eventually get wheat into more of a dormant state. It will help with harvest and fieldwork, instead.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The region will be under the gun from multiple clipper systems that will move through over the next 10 days or so. One of them moving through this weekend will bring down some colder air for a couple of days. That cold air moving over the warm Great Lakes could add up to some significant lake-effect snow in some prone areas. Winds should be breezy with all the clippers moving through, but precipitation will be rather limited. Overall, conditions are still favorable for harvest and other fieldwork.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels will crest from north to south on the Mississippi River this week. Very little precipitation from a weather pattern that will be promoting clipper systems across the north into next week will mean that water levels will return to some hazardous levels for the second half of November if the pattern doesn't change to a more favorable one.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into central Brazil over the weekend and will be active with showers through next week as it continually gets reinforced by fronts moving up from Argentina. Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but showers may be heavier into next week and be more beneficial.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture in the country is still rather good for early growth on corn and sunflowers. Soils are primed for soybean planting which will be increasing this month. Winter wheat has been in really good shape, though consistent rainfall has increased disease pressure.

Multiple fronts will continue to move through this week into next week, which keep conditions overall favorable.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Drier weather is setting up in the eastern half of the continent for the rest of this week and weekend, but systems moving through the Atlantic may produce some additional rain from the UK down through Spain.

Weather conditions are still overall favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers have improved soil moisture somewhat throughout the region, but eastern areas are still dealing with deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. Limited showers are forecast this week, generally just for western areas that are in better shape anyway. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. If showers do not come with the warmth, wheat plants will continue growing in some fairly insufficient soil moisture. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A couple of systems will move through this week, but with limited precipitation that will be beneficial for some areas and miss others. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature, there is less time for benefit before harvest and cotton and sorghum are planted.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Overall conditions for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China and winter wheat and canola establishment in central China are favorable. Southern areas have been having issues with dryness though, which may affect sugarcane, rice, and specialty crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, falling Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, falling Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Sunday. Lake-effect snow Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, falling Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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