Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A series of clippers moving through the U.S. in early November, improvements to the water levels on the Mississippi River, and showers filling back in across central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ISOLATED SHOWERS, CLIPPERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system curled around the Midwest this week with scattered showers. Some isolated showers may develop on Friday and Saturday and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers in early November that should create some variable conditions. Precipitation will generally be light, but may disrupt harvest and other fieldwork in some areas. Temperatures should be somewhat variable with all the systems moving through.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYING OUT

Recent heavy rain has helped with some of the drought that had been spreading through the Central and Southern Plains, and is filling soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. The region will trend drier for at least early November though, helping with fieldwork.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS DESPITE ACTIVE CLIPPER PATTERN

Several little systems and fronts will move across the Northern Plains during the first week of November, though precipitation looks rather light. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but the forecast is trending mostly above normal.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS IMPROVING

Moderate to heavy rain that fell earlier this week is helping to reduce drought in the Delta. The forecast for Mississippi River water levels has improved since earlier this week, bringing about a period of somewhat higher levels for early November. The area will trend drier again going into November though, meaning the burst of higher water levels will be temporary.

HEAVY RAIN RETURNING TO CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front has moved into central Brazil and is restarting showers after a week of dryness. Producers may have been worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth on soybeans, but another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread heavy rainfall across the country.

OVERALL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

It has been much cooler in Argentina this week, but any areas of frost were very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage. Systems continue to push through the country going into early November, bringing through scattered showers that have kept soil moisture high for planting and early growth of corn. However, this also brings through cooler temperatures that will keep growth slow. Winter wheat prospects are high this year because of all the rainfall, though that may be causing more disease pressure, as well.

HIGH SOIL MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF EUROPE

Europe has seen many waves of showers over the last couple of weeks, and more will move through into next week, being very favorable for winter wheat establishment. The rain may have led to some significant delays in fieldwork, though.

REDUCED DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Another round of showers will move through the Black Sea region on Friday and Saturday, as rainfall over the last 10 days or so has helped to build soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. Another burst of showers will move through the region next week, but is forecast to be light. Temperatures are forecast to stay warmer for a while and hold off dormancy, which typically starts to occur for northern areas in early November. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through eastern Australia earlier this week and again on Thursday, providing some limited benefit to a few dry spots. A system moving through this weekend has increasing showers forecast for eastern areas, but will still be scattered. Though some of the recent rainfall has been favorable, it has been spotty and hasn't hit all areas that have been dry. A few more systems are forecast next week and beyond, but with uncertain precipitation coverage. Conditions may have improved for filling winter wheat and canola, but are still mixed. The coming rain this weekend should be more favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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