Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system producing more rain and a shot of colder air to the southern U.S., and showers filling back in across central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SHOWERS ON THE EDGES OF THE MIDWEST NEXT FEW DAYS

A front and attached system will move through western areas of the Midwest on Tuesday, then curl around the southern and eastern portions of the region for Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers, followed by a little burst of cooler air. Some additional showers may develop in that cooler air over the weekend, and the region will be dealing with a couple of clippers going into early November that should create some variable conditions. That may cause issues with harvest and other fieldwork in some areas.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING COLD AIR

A system brought heavy rain to parts of the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. A front is moving through on Tuesday with areas of showers as well. That should help with some of the drought that has been spreading, and fill soils for winter wheat establishment. Some other spots may have seen some delays to harvest and other fieldwork. The region will trend drier going into November, though, giving those with fieldwork to do some opportunity in which to do so.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system moved through the Northern Plains on Monday with scattered showers and the region will be in the crosshairs for clipper systems of various strength going into early November. Temperatures will tend to be variable with all the systems moving through, but no significant threat of snow is in the forecast through next week.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS STILL LOW DESPITE RECENT HEAVY RAIN

A system went through the Delta over the weekend with areas of heavy rainfall. Another front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday with more scattered showers. The rainfall is not forecast to bring much benefit to the Mississippi River but should improve the drought in the region. The area will trend drier again after the system passes on Wednesday.

RAIN RETURNING TO CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEK

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend with scattered showers and some heavy rain. The front will migrate into central Brazil over the next couple of days and restart showers after a week of dryness. Producers did not make as much progress on soybean planting last week as expected, which may be due to the dryness. Producers may be worried about soil moisture for germination and early growth, but another front will move through this weekend into next week which looks like it may be more beneficial for bringing widespread showers.

COLD, BUT STILL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

A front brought some areas of heavy rain to Argentina late last week, filling in some areas that were a little dry. Some showers are forecast across the north for Tuesday and another front is forecast to bring through rainfall this weekend. It is much cooler in the country this week, but any areas of frost would be very limited across far southern areas and not likely to cause much, if any, damage.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS EUROPE

More waves of showers are in the forecast this week across Europe. Another system is likely to bring widespread rain to western areas later this week and send more waves eastward this weekend into next week as well. All the rainfall may be making it difficult to complete fieldwork, but is favorable for winter wheat establishment in most areas.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Widespread rain swept through the Black Sea region over the weekend and another system will bring more showers to some of the driest areas in eastern Ukraine and western Russia Tuesday. A few more showers will be possible there later this week. Though the rainfall is favorable for winter wheat, northern areas will start to go dormant in early November unless temperatures end up warmer than forecast. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through eastern Australia and some additional rainfall will be possible in northeast Australia this week as well. Showers will be tougher to find for the rest of the week, but a system moving through this weekend has increasing showers forecast. Though some of the recent rainfall has been favorable, it has been spotty and hasn't hit all areas that have been dry. Conditions may have improved for filling winter wheat and canola, but are still mixed.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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