Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A couple more systems moving through the country to end the month, including some heavy rain in the Southern Plains, and a drier stretch for central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

RAIN CONTINUES IN GREAT LAKES, ANOTHER SYSTEM EYEING MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

A system continues across the Great Lakes with isolated showers through Thursday. It has produced some strong winds as well. Cooler weather moving into the region will produce areas of frost for the next couple of mornings. Southern areas may get some showers Friday into the weekend. A stronger system may develop for early next week that could bring rain, strong winds, and another drop in temperature. The rain should help with the ongoing drought but probably pushes back some harvest progress in a few areas as well.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Central and Southern Plains have been drier for the last few days, allowing for some fieldwork to be done. But a compact system will move into the region Thursday through the weekend with scattered showers and perhaps some heavy rain. That should be beneficial to winter wheat establishment.

DRIER FOR A FEW DAYS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A few quiet days are forecast in the Northern Plains after recent rainfall may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. A system will move back in with more showers on Sunday or Monday, though the prospect for showers is uncertain and drier weather is favored afterward for a bit.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS STILL LOW DESPITE RECENT RAIN

Rainfall over the weekend in the Delta and Midwest has helped the drought but has provided very little benefit to the water levels on the Mississippi River. Another system will move through this weekend with showers, and another early next week could as well. Some limited benefit will occur for the drought and rivers, but low water levels continue to plague shipping up and down the river until we see a significant change in the weather pattern.

BRAZIL DRIER THIS WEEK, FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

A front has essentially cleared Brazil to the north. Cooler and drier weather will keep most areas dry for the rest of the week. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil in the middle of next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch is only slightly concerning, as producers there will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

Another front will spread showers through Argentina for the rest of the week. The front will clear north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or so and increase in November. Though rainfall this week should be favorable, the frequency of fronts is starting to slow down a bit, which may need to be monitored.

WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE INTO NEXT WEEK

A system that moved into western Europe this weekend continues to send waves of showers across the continent throughout the week and into next week as well. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but showers may hamper the ongoing corn harvest.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE BLACK SEA REGION

A system brought scattered showers to the Black Sea region over the weekend, but not a lot of heavy rain like the region would prefer. Dryness continues to be a concern, especially in southwestern Russia. Showers will be limited this week until a front comes through from one of the European systems on Friday. This front and systems that follow behind it are more likely to bring about better rainfall coverage and amounts, though it is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

The trend has been for building dryness in Australia over the last few weeks. A system went through with limited showers already this week and another will move through this weekend with more showers. But the rain may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are mixed across the country for now.

COOL AND DRY IN CHINA

Heavy rain moved through central China last week, which was followed by a burst of cold air over the weekend. With drier conditions for central and northeast China, that should be beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment in the central region, and corn and soybean harvest in the northeast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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