Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Several systems moving through the U.S. through the end of October with rain and breezy winds, and a drier stretch for central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MORE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A system continues across the north with isolated showers across the Great Lakes through Thursday. It is producing some strong winds as well. Southern areas of the Midwest may get some showers later this week and weekend. A stronger and more wrapped up system is forecast for next week that could bring several days of rain and strong winds. The rain should help with the ongoing drought, but probably pushes back some harvest progress.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Central and Southern Plains should be drier for the next couple of days, allowing for some fieldwork to be done. But a compact system is forecast to move into the region Thursday through Saturday with perhaps some heavy rain. That should be beneficial to winter wheat establishment.

DRIER FOR A FEW DAYS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers are exiting to the east early Tuesday while some breezy winds hang on in the Dakotas. Recent rainfall in the Northern Plains may have made it a bit more difficult to continue harvest progress and other fieldwork. Drier weather later this week should be more beneficial. A system will move back in with more showers on Sunday or Monday, leaving the window a bit short.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS NOT SEEING MUCH OF A BOOST DESPITE RECENT RAIN

A front moved through with widespread moderate to heavy rain not only in the Delta region, but also in the Midwest, which will help to boost water levels on the Mississippi River. However, the boost is not forecast to be all that impressive or last long with low water levels currently causing issues for transportation.

BRAZIL DRIER THIS WEEK, FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

A front moved through the bulk of Brazil with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall over the weekend. The front is moving north Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler and drier weather behind this front will keep most areas dry for much of the week. The next front will move into southern areas this weekend and its migration into central Brazil early next week should restart showers there. The dry stretch is only slightly concerning as producers there will likely take advantage of the dryness to continue a rapid soybean planting pace. As long as the return of showers does not take longer than forecast, conditions are still mostly favorable.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

Another front will return to southern Argentina late Tuesday and only slowly move north and spread showers through the country the rest of the week. The front will clear north of the country this weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for planting and early growth of corn. Soybean planting will begin in another week or two and increase in November. Though rainfall this week should be favorable, the frequency of fronts is starting to slow down a bit, which may need to be monitored.

WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE THIS WEEK

A system that moved into western Europe this weekend is sending waves of showers across the continent throughout the week and into next week as well. Soil moisture is mostly favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment, but showers may hamper the ongoing corn harvest.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE BLACK SEA REGION

A system brought scattered showers to the Black Sea region over the weekend, but not a lot of heavy rain like the region would prefer. Dryness continues to be a concern, especially in southwestern Russia. Showers will be limited this week until a front comes through from one of the European systems on Friday. This front and systems that follow behind it are more likely to bring about better rainfall coverage and amounts, though it is getting to be a little late in the year to have a significant benefit for wheat that should start to go dormant in the north over the next couple of weeks.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

The trend has been for building dryness in Australia over the last few weeks. A couple of systems will move through this week with scattered showers. But they may miss some important areas and continue to leave them too dry. Conditions are mixed across the country for now.

COOL AND DRY IN CHINA

Heavy rain moved through central China last week, which was followed by a burst of cold air over the weekend. However, frosts have not been an issue just yet. With drier conditions for central and northeast China, that should be beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment in the central, and corn and soybean harvest in the northeast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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