Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A front moving through the U.S. this weekend with some heavy rain, and good rainfall in South America, but a drier stretch for central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A front has been producing showers in the northwestern Midwest for much of the week. A system in the Northern Plains will push a front eastward through the region this weekend. That may cause some stronger thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain. The rainfall may stall harvest progress in some areas for a little while. Another system will move through the region early next week, but with more limited showers that may target Michigan more than other areas.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moving through the Northern Plains will push a cold front across the Central and Southern Plains through Saturday with variable showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation may slow down harvest in some areas while others can go on without issue. Soil moisture is still mostly favorable for winter wheat establishment, but could use some rain in some spots, too. Only limited areas of beneficial rainfall are forecast for winter wheat.

MORE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers continue across the Northern Plains on Friday as a system moves through. Another system is likely to move through Sunday and Monday with some showers as well. Temperatures will be quite variable as the systems move through. All of the recent and forecast precipitation is not favorable for harvest, and progress should be slower.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS SHOULD GET A BOOST THIS WEEKEND

Dry weather since the middle of last week is building momentum again for increasing drought in the Delta, and water levels on the Lower Mississippi River are declining. Some showers moving through on Saturday and farther north may slow the decline on the river at least a little bit, but are not expected to be heavy enough to produce significant change in the momentum for lower water levels.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL, CENTRAL AREAS GOING DRY BEHIND IT

A front will move through southern Brazil through Saturday, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall that continues to be favorable for that region. The front will move into central Brazil this weekend with widespread rainfall, but may have a tendency to move too far north next week. If it does, it would disrupt the monsoon flow from the north and leave much of Brazil drier until the next front comes through next weekend into the following week. More dry weather would be unfavorable for planting and establishment of soybeans. Areas across the south have good soil moisture for early growth.

GOOD SOIL MOISTURE IN ARGENTINA

Though it has been a little drier across southern and central Argentina, soil moisture is still very high and beneficial for crop development. A front is bringing showers to northern areas on Friday. Southern areas may have to wait until mid or most likely later next week for rain to return. Soybean planting will get started in a couple of weeks. Though the developing La Nina in the Pacific tends to leave the country hotter and drier, conditions so far are favorable. Fronts and systems do seem to be heading toward a downtrend in frequency, which may need to be monitored over the next few weeks.

BIGGER SYSTEM HEADING FOR EUROPE THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers have been occurring over eastern Europe this week. Drier conditions in the northwest have been a little concerning for winter wheat establishment, but a system is forecast to move through this weekend into next week, likely with heavy rain. Showers should work south and east throughout next week as well as a stormier weather pattern takes hold for the rest of October.

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA MAY BECOME SCATTERED THIS WEEKEND

Only isolated showers have been occurring this week and drought is still a major problem for the Black Sea region, specifically in western Russia. Showers may be more scattered and beneficial this weekend as a system moves through, but this region needs a lot more rain for winter wheat establishment. Only limited showers are forecast for next week, but may pick up next weekend and be more beneficial. It is getting late for that to be of benefit though as some northern areas are likely to see more frequent frosts and head into dormancy in November.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Much of Australia has been drier over the last couple of weeks, somewhat concerning for winter wheat and canola in some areas of the country. Some areas still have good soil moisture though. Only limited showers are forecast to move through the country for the next week, and drier areas are expanding if a few more systems fail to develop next week.

RAIN MAY BE TOO HEAVY IN CENTRAL CHINA

Rain has been consistent in central China for the last several weeks, but has gotten heavy, which may be causing some flooding and overall poor conditions for planting and establishment of winter wheat and canola. Drier weather in the northeast has been more favorable for corn and soybean harvest. Scattered showers will continue into Friday before colder air descends through the country. That may produce some frosts for limited spots in central China. That would not be hazardous for too many spots, but may have some impact before the real start to winter occurs. The colder weather may impact harvest across the northeast as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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