Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Quiet weather in the U.S. for the next few days but a bigger storm moving in this weekend, the increasing rainfall forecast in central Brazil, and showers across the rest of South America and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MIDWEST, MORE NEXT WEEK

Heavier rain earlier this week likely disrupted harvest a bit in the Midwest, but also improved drought conditions and brought water into the Mississippi River system for transportation. A few showers may be possible Thursday and Friday, but drier weather should promote harvest. Another front is forecast to move into the region Sunday and Monday and will likely stall into next week, which could mean more rain for some areas, especially west.

QUIET IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, FRONT MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND

Showers earlier this week may have slowed down harvest progress in some areas of the Central and Southern Plains, but those with winter wheat likely found the rain favorable. We could see a few spotty showers into the weekend, but drier conditions are likely, benefiting harvest. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers.

NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures are rising in the Northern Plains after a couple of chilly days. A system will move through this weekend and could produce some areas of heavy rain as well as minor snow accumulations in Montana. We will have to see if another system can form in the region in the middle of next week as well. Drier conditions until then could allow for some significant harvest progress.

MISSISSIPPI WATER LEVELS GETTING A BRIEF BUMP BEFORE FALLING AGAIN

Showers that moved through the Delta earlier this week caused drought reduction in some areas while heavy rain in the Ohio Valley will likely provide a boost to water levels on the Mississippi River into next week, at least to some degree. That will likely be brief, however, as drier weather is in place now through most of next week.

TRUE START TO WET SEASON COMING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil has been producing showers this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, which has been unfavorable for soybean establishment after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. However, showers are starting to fill in across the region and are forecast to be widespread starting on Friday and continuing thereafter. That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

GOOD PLANTING, EARLY GROWTH CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment in Argentina. Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 degrees Celsius. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers have been consistent in eastern Europe, especially the southeast over the last week. A small disturbance is also producing showers for parts of Spain over the next few days as well, which are sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas this weekend with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture, while bringing a burst of colder air that would not be.

RAIN SPREADING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA

A system in southeastern Europe has been providing showers to western areas of the Black Sea region over the last week. However, many areas have seen little or no rainfall in the east, especially in southwestern Russia, which is much drier. The system will spread rainfall throughout the region for the rest of the week and another settling in this weekend could continue those showers for at least some of next week. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region, especially in the east.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Australia is in a drier stretch of weather that continues this week. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are faring much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages, but the forecast is not supportive of that. Instead, smaller areas of showers that are mostly below normal are in the forecast through next week and specifically in New South Wales as other states get drier.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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