Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Some disruption to the U.S. harvest, the increasing rainfall forecast in central Brazil, and showers across Argentina, southern Brazil, and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH LARGE DROP IN TEMPERATURE

A front continues to bring rain as it moves through the Midwest on Tuesday, disrupting the harvest across the south. A few showers may be possible late week as well. But overall drier conditions continue to promote harvest for most of the region. Another front is forecast to move into the region this weekend that could bring more areas of unneeded rainfall.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front continues to produce some areas of rain as it moves through the Southern Plains on Tuesday, after bringing a couple of streaks of heavier rain through the Central Plains on Sunday and Monday. Drier weather and a burst of cooler temperatures are following behind the front, but we could see some spotty showers and temperatures will increase later this week. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers. Some disruption to harvest is possible, though winter wheat areas would like to see some additional rainfall after the recent heat.

DRY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM

Heavy rain moved through portions of the Northern Plains over the weekend, slowing down harvest progress. Another system will move through this weekend and could produce more of the same. A dry period in between the systems could allow for some significant harvest progress this week.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

Some showers moved through the Delta on Monday and were heavy in a couple of spots, helping with the drought and bringing at least some water into the Mississippi River. A front will push through on Tuesday with more limited showers. Drier weather that follows will continue to be supportive of harvest, but not for river levels, which should continue to decline overall, creating transportation issues.

FORECAST RAINFALL INCREASING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front is moving into southern Brazil with showers early this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, unfavorable for soybean establishment after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted have been at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent. However, models are a little more aggressive with showers developing in the region late this week and weekend as the true start to the wet season rainfall. That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

Most areas in Argentina have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment. Another front moved through this weekend with fairly widespread rainfall, but also a significant, but brief, drop in temperature. Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 degrees Celsius. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers continue in eastern Europe throughout the week. A small disturbance may produce showers for parts of Spain this week as well, which are sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas this weekend with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture while bringing a burst of colder air that would not be.

RAINFALL FORECAST INCREASING IN THE BLACK SEA

Some showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, and extension of a system that lingered over southeastern Europe from last week. However, many areas saw little or no rainfall, especially in southwestern Russia, which is much drier. The rainfall forecast has increased for this week and a system settling in this weekend could continue those showers for at least some of next week. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region, especially in the east.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Showers moved through some areas of Australia over the weekend, mostly across the wetter west. Showers were spottier in the east. The country is in a drier stretch of weather that continues this week. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are faring much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages, but the forecast is not supportive of that. Instead, smaller areas of showers that are mostly below normal are in the forecast.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.