Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Drier weather through the Central U.S., and showers across Argentina, Brazil, and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLING INTO MIDWEST

Scattered showers are exiting the eastern Midwest on Thursday after being heavy in many areas this week. The recent rainfall is likely to delay harvest, but should improve drought conditions somewhat. Drier weather that follows for the weekend and most of next week will promote harvest.

DRIER NOW FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Recent rainfall has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest in the Central and Southern Plains, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions are likely now through most of next week, which should favor fieldwork.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the Northern Plains for the rest of this week and much of next week as well. Some showers may move through mid-late next week, but are forecast to be isolated. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

RAIN MOVING OUT OF DELTA

Scattered showers are exiting the Delta region early on Thursday. The recent rain will help mitigate the expanding drought and promote a small bump on the Mississippi River. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected to end the week that should continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

CENTRAL BRAZIL GOING DRIER AGAIN

A cold front remains stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais on Thursday before it fizzles out. It has already produced widespread rainfall sufficient to start planting in many areas. However, forecast rainfall afterward is very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still choose to wait for showers to be more consistent in October to get a start on soybean planting to secure good germination and early growth with more limited risk of drying out too quickly. Meanwhile, southern areas will get a couple more rounds of rainfall this weekend and next week and remain in good condition for widespread planting.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

Soil conditions continue to be very favorable for corn planting in Australia, and producers have the green light to do so. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with more widespread rainfall that should be beneficial. Soybean planting will begin in October.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

A system continues to spread showers across the southern end of Europe for the next few days. Drier weather is forecast for most areas next week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. There is some potential for the remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle to move through this weekend or early next week with potentially heavier rainfall.

LIMITED RAIN A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

Though a few fronts will move through the Black Sea region on Thursday and next week, they are not forecast to produce much rainfall. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for winter wheat planting and establishment in southwestern Russia and eastern Ukraine, though conditions are good for fieldwork. Conditions are better in the western end of the region.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of Australia. Much drier conditions are forecast this week and next week, with only limited showers for southeastern areas.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

As harvest continues to expand, drier conditions in northeastern China are continuing to be favorable for producers there. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola, with mostly favorable conditions there.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.