Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Areas of heavy rainfall forecast for the Central U.S. followed by a drier stretch, and showers across Argentina, Brazil, and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDWEST, DRIER WEATHER COMING

Scattered showers continue in the Midwest through Thursday as a system moves through the south and east. The recent and forecast rainfall are likely to delay harvest, but should improve drought conditions somewhat. Drier weather that follows for the weekend and most of next week will promote harvest.

HEAVY RAIN MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain moved into the Central and Southern Plains over the last couple of days and some showers continue on Wednesday before the system moves eastward. The recent rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions are likely to follow through most of next week, which should favor fieldwork.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Drier and warmer conditions are forecast in the Northern Plains for the rest of this week and much of next week as well. Some showers may move through mid-late next week, but are forecast to be isolated. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH DELTA

Scattered showers have increased across the Delta and some areas of heavy rain have fallen across the very dry north. Showers continue with a front moving through Wednesday into Thursday. That will help mitigate the expanding drought and promote a small bump on the Mississippi River, or at least stop its decline. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected to end the week that should continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

STALLED FRONT IN CENTRAL BRAZIL FIZZLING OUT

A cold front remains stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais through Thursday before it fizzles out. It has already produced widespread rainfall sufficient to start planting in some areas. However, forecast rainfall afterward is fairly widespread across southern areas for next week, but very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still choose to wait for showers to be more consistent in October to get a start on soybean planting to secure good germination and early growth with more limited risk of drying out too quickly. Meanwhile, southern areas remain in good condition for widespread planting.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

Though some cooler temperatures moved into Argentina early this week, soil conditions continue to be very favorable for corn planting and producers have the green light in which to do so. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with more widespread rainfall that should be beneficial. Soybean planting will begin in October.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

A system continues to spread showers across the southern end of Europe for the next few days. Drier weather is forecast for most areas next week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. There is some potential for the remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle to move through this weekend or early next week with potentially heavier rainfall.

LIMITED RAIN A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

Though a few fronts will move through the Black Sea region later this week and next week, they are not forecast to produce much rainfall. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for winter wheat planting and establishment, though conditions are good for fieldwork.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK, POSSIBLY NEXT AS WELL

Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of Australia. Some cold air that moved in over the weekend may have had an impact on reproductive wheat and canola. Much drier conditions are forecast this week and next week, with only limited showers for southeastern areas.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. As harvest continues to expand, drier conditions in the northeast are continuing to be favorable for producers there. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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