Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Areas of heavy rainfall forecast for the Central U.S., showers across Argentina, Europe, and central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDWEST

Scattered showers continue in the Midwest through Thursday as another system moves through. The showers are likely to delay harvest but should improve drought conditions somewhat. Drier weather that follows for the weekend and next week will promote harvest.

HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain moved into the Central and Southern Plains late Monday with showers continuing through Wednesday before the system moves eastward. The recent rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions after Wednesday will be more favorable for harvest.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Drier and warmer conditions are forecast in the Northern Plains for the rest of this week and likely next week as well. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH DELTA, FARTHER NORTH

Scattered showers will increase in the Delta as another system moves through the region Tuesday through Thursday, which could lead to some heavy amounts. That will help with the expanding drought and promote rises on the Mississippi River, or at least stop its decline. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected to end the week that should continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

FRONT STALLING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL FOR NEXT FEW DAYS

A strong cold front moved from southern Brazil into central Brazil on Monday and has stalled from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais for a few days before it fizzles out. In that time, scattered rainfall could add up to significant amounts that would technically be the start of the wet season. However, forecast rainfall afterward is fairly widespread across southern areas for next week, but very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still have to wait for showers to be more consistent to get a start on planting. Meanwhile, southern areas remain in good condition for widespread planting.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

A front moved through Argentina over the weekend with widespread rainfall for much of the country's growing areas. Generally good planting conditions are in place for most of the country. Cold air that moved in behind that front led to limited frosts across southeastern areas of the country, which may cause some damage to wheat and delay producers from planting corn. That is not a concern, but would push more corn into the late-planting window, subjecting more of the crop to potential harm from the developing La Nina. Soybean planting will begin in October.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN EUROPE

A system moved into western Europe over the weekend, with heavy rain in France. That system will continue to spread showers eastward throughout the week, but primarily across the south. Drier weather is forecast for most areas next week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment. There is some potential for the remnants of Hurricane Gabrielle to move through this weekend or early next week with potentially heavier rainfall.

LIMITED RAIN A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

A system brought rainfall to some of the driest areas of the Black Sea region last week, but this week remains much drier. The recent rain may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought. Though a few fronts will move through later this week and next week, they are not forecast to produce much, if any, rainfall.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK, POSSIBLY NEXT AS WELL

Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of Australia. Some cold air that moved in over the weekend may be producing limited frosts in some southeastern areas through Tuesday morning, which may impact wheat and canola. Much drier conditions are forecast this week and next week, which could put some stress on reproductive crops.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast got some drier weather over the last week, but a wave of showers moving through early this week will produce some nuisance weather. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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