Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Areas of heavy rainfall forecast for the Central U.S., showers across Argentina, Europe, and central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDWEST

Isolated showers became scattered over the Midwest this weekend, leading to some areas of heavy rain. Showers continue on Monday and another system moves into the region late on Tuesday and continues the showers eastward through the end of the week. The showers are likely to delay harvest, but drier weather that follows for the weekend and next week will promote harvest.

MORE RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and a few areas of heavy rain moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. Another system will move into the region on Monday with showers through Wednesday before the system moves eastward. The recent rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans as well as harvest, but more favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Drier conditions afterward will be more favorable for harvest.

DRIER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A few showers continued over the eastern Dakotas over the weekend. A few showers will move through western areas of the Northern Plains on Monday, but drier and warmer conditions are forecast for the rest of this week and likely next week as well. Conditions will be good for maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH DELTA, FARTHER NORTH

Isolated showers became a bit more scattered in the Delta over the weekend. Scattered showers will increase as another system moves into the region midweek, which could lead to some heavy amounts. That will help with the quick-expanding drought and promote rises on the Mississippi River. However, it will be short-lived with drier conditions expected by Friday that continue next week. Low water levels are likely to return or get worse heading into October.

FRONT STALLING IN CENTRAL BRAZIL FOR SEVERAL DAYS

A strong cold front moved into southern Brazil late on Sunday. It will move into central Brazil on Monday and stall from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais for a few days before fizzling out. In that time, scattered rainfall could add up to significant amounts that would technically be the start of the wet season. However, forecast rainfall afterward is fairly widespread across southern areas for next week, but very isolated or non-existent in central Brazil. Producers may still have to wait for showers to be more consistent to get a quicker start on planting. Meanwhile, southern areas remain in good condition for widespread planting.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA, BUT SOME COLD AIR EARLY THIS WEEK

A front moved through Argentina over the weekend with widespread rainfall for much of the country's growing areas. Cold air is following behind that front and some limited frosts are forecast across southeastern areas of the region, which may cause some damage to wheat and delay producers from planting corn. Soybean planting will begin in October.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

A system moved into western areas of Europe over the weekend, with heavy rain in France. That system will continue to spread showers eastward throughout the week. Spain has had more limited rainfall and could use more rain for winter wheat planting and establishment.

LIMITED RAIN A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

A system brought rainfall to some of the driest areas of the Black Sea region last week, but this week remains much drier. The recent rain may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought. Though a few fronts will move through later this week and next week, they are not forecast to produce much, if any, rainfall.

DRIER IN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK

Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of Australia. Some cold air that moved in over the weekend may be producing limited frosts in southeastern areas over the next couple of mornings, which may impact wheat and canola. Much drier conditions are forecast this week, which could put some stress on reproductive crops.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast got some drier weather over the last week, but will find a wave of showers moving through early this week. Those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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