Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An increasing rainfall forecast for the Central U.S., showers across Argentina, Europe, and Australia, and the start to the wet season in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Isolated showers over the western Midwest will spread eastward this weekend into early next week before leaving, but another system will take its place and continue showers for much of next week. With how slow-moving the systems and showers are, some areas could pick up heavy rain, which is most likely across the west. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

MORE RAIN, SOME HEAVY, IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Areas of showers and some heavy rain have been moving through the Central and Southern Plains with a slow-moving system over the last several days. That is pushing back the drydown of corn and soybeans. The system should push south and east out of the area this weekend, but another system will take its place early next week with showers lingering for several more days across the east. Rainfall in the southwest is favoring planting and establishment of winter wheat.

MORE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have been moving through the Northern Plains over the last several days. Areas of showers will continue through Friday with a few more on Monday. That will favor any immature corn and soybeans but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going.

INCREASING DROUGHT IN LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOME RAIN ON THE WAY

Only spotty showers have been falling across the Delta over the last couple of days as recent dryness continues to cause drought to develop and water levels to lower on the Mississippi River. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest into next week, and another system will quickly take its place next week, which will continue showers for many days. That should bring some needed rainfall into the region, as well as the Mississippi River system. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest is likely, though.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL GETTING MORE RAIN, CENTRAL STATES AWAIT START OF WET SEASON NEXT WEEK

Spring planting is underway across southern Brazil, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso, but the consistent wet season rainfall does not look to start early. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week could bring that necessary rainfall but would only be a couple of days early for those in central Brazil. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October to start soybean planting there, but the wet season rainfall is not expected to be late, and producers will soon be out in full force.

FAVORABLE SOIL MOISTURE IN ARGENTINA, BUT SOME COLD AIR

Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers across most of Argentina, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air will move in behind a stronger front early next week that may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it over the next several days, with more showers for the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

RECENT RAINFALL IN EUROPE LARGELY FAVORABLE

Waves of rain have been increasing soil moisture for most of Europe over the last month, which had been favorable for filling summer crops and planting winter crops. A break that is occurring this week is more favorable for fieldwork. Southern stretches including Spain, Italy, and the southeast could use more rainfall, though. A system is forecast to move into the continent this weekend and slowly spread eastward next week, which may bring rainfall to those southern areas.

DESPITE SOME RAIN, DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

A system that brought rainfall to western areas of the Black Sea region this weekend continues to bring showers eastward with some rainfall for very dry areas across portions of the east into Friday. That may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought, and dryness is likely to follow after the system moves out.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA SEEING A PICKUP IN RAINFALL, BUT ALSO FREEZING TEMPERATURES

Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of Australia. Another system that only scraped through western areas should provide some beneficial rainfall to eastern areas over the next day or two. Some colder air will follow and there is a slight risk of frost, especially behind a stronger cold front this weekend for southeastern areas of the country. Should frost develop, that could be severely damaging to reproductive wheat and canola.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast are getting some drier weather while those in central China continue to see showers as they plant winter wheat and canola. Most areas are getting what they need this week. That largely continues into next week as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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