USDA Reports Summary
USDA Increases Corn Production Another 72 MB to Record 16.814 BB
This article was originally published at 11:01 a.m. CDT on Friday, Sept. 12. It was last updated with additional information at 2:08 p.m. CDT on Friday, Sept. 12.
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Unexpectedly, USDA on Friday increased corn production 72 million bushels, pushing to a projected record 16.814 billion bushels even though USDA dropped the yield 2.1 bushels per acre to 186.7 bpa. USDA offset the lower yield by again increasing planted acres and expected harvested acreage.
USDA released its September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday.
Friday's U.S. ending stocks estimates were slightly bearish for corn, slightly bearish for soybeans, and slightly bullish for wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were neutral for corn, neutral to slightly bullish for soybeans, and bearish for wheat.
DTN's post-report webinar, which discusses USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events, is available at https://www.dtnpf.com/….
Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often. We will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Friday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.
You can also view the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
USDA increased the 2025-26 corn production by 72 million bushels (mb) to 16.814 billion bushels (bb). For comparison, record production was 15.34 bb in the 2023-24 crop.
Planted acres for corn were increased 1.4 million acres to 98.7 ma. Harvested acres now are projected at 90 ma, up 1.3 ma from last month.
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USDA also increased beginning stocks for the 2025-25 crop by 20 mb by increasing the old-crop ending stocks to 1.325 bb.
On the demand side, total feed and residual use is projected at 6.1 bb.
Ethanol use is pegged at 5.6 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 13.08 bb.
USDA bumped up projected corn exports for the 2025-26 crop 100 mb to 2.975 bb.
Ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop are projected at 2.11 bb, down from 2.117 bb in August. If that holds, the ending stocks still would be the highest in seven years.
The farm gate price for the 2025-26 crop was $3.90 a bushel the same as August.
Globally, USDA projects beginning stocks for the 2025-26 corn crop at 284.18 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.07 mmt from August. Global production is forecast at 1,286.58 mmt, down 2 mmt from August. Exports globally are projected at 201.71 mmt, up slightly from August. That puts projected global ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop at 281.4 mmt, down 1.14 mmt from last month.
For the 2024-25 crop, Brazil's production was increased 3 mmt to 135 mmt while exports were held pat at 43 mmt. Argentina's production was maintained at 50 mmt and exports were 34.5 mmt.
SOYBEANS
Farmers planted 81.1 million acres of soybeans, and USDA expects them to harvest 80.3 million acres of it. The national average yield declined by 0.1 bushel per acre to 53.5 bpa.
That put production at 4.301 billion bushels. Beginning stocks and imports were held steady at 330 mb and 20 mb, respectively, leading to total supplies of 4.651 bb. On the demand side, crush forecasts grew by 15 mb to 2.555 bb while exports fell by 20 mb to 1.685 mb. Seed use was forecast at 73 mb, unchanged from last month, while residual use increased by 3 mb to 37 mb. The net result was an ending stocks estimate of 300 mb, up 10 mb from August's estimate.
The national average farm gate price declined by a dime to $10 per bushel.
Globally, ending stocks for 2025-26 declined by almost 1 mmt to 123.99 mmt, reflecting small changes to beginning stocks, production and imports. Production in Brazil and Argentina was left unchanged at 175 mmt and 48.5 mmt, respectively. Chinese imports were left unchanged at 112 mmt.
WHEAT
USDA expects farmers to harvest 1.927 billion bushels of wheat in 2025-26, unchanged from last month's estimate. USDA will update its wheat production forecasts in its Small Grains Summary, which is scheduled to be released Sept. 30.
USDA estimates U.S. ending wheat stocks at 844 million bushels for 2025-26, down from 869 mb in August.
On the exports side, USDA pegs U.S. wheat exports at 900 mb, which is an increase from 875 mb last month.
The farm gate price of $5.10 per bushel is a drop from $5.30 last month.
Globally, USDA estimates world ending wheat stocks for 2025-26 at 264.06 million metric tons, a bump up from 260.08 mmt in August.
USDA pegs Russian wheat production at 85.0 mmt, an increase from last month's estimate of 83.5 mmt. Production in Australia is estimated at 34.5 mmt, also an increase from 31.0 mmt in August.
USDA estimates production in the Ukraine at 23.0 mmt, a bump up from 22.0 mmt last month. Canadian production is pegged at 36.0 mmt, up from 35.0 mmt in August. Production in the European Union was estimated at 140.1 mmt, an increase from 138.25 mmt last month.
USDA estimates Russia's wheat exports at 45.0 mmt, a slight drop from 46.0 mmt last month. USDA pegs Ukraine exports at 15.0 mmt, down from 15.5 mmt from last month. Canada exports are pegged at 27.0 mmt, also unchanged from August. European Union exports were estimated at 32.5 mmt, unchanged from last month.
LIVESTOCK
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets in 2025, according to DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.
"Beef production for 2025 declined by 100 million pounds, as both fed and non-fed slaughter speeds are expected to continue to decline through the year's end. The projected quarterly steer prices were bullish for the market, as steers in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $240 ($2 higher from last month), steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $244 (up $4), steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $246 (up $5 from last month) and steers in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $248 (up $5 from last month). Beef imports for 2025 increased by 90 million pounds, as the demand for lean processing beef is still high, but beef exports for 2025 decreased by 40 million pounds amid thin supplies and historically high prices."
Friday's WASDE report shared mostly supportive news for the hog and pork markets for 2025, Stewart said.
"Pork production for 2025 fell by 180 million pounds, as processing speeds are expected to trend lower through the end of the year, and dressed weights have declined as well. The quarterly price projections for 2025 and 2026 were supportive as well, hogs in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $77 (unchanged from last month), hogs in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $69 (up $2 from last month), hogs in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $65 (up $1 from last month) and hogs in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $70 (up $1 from last month). Pork imports for 2025 are unchanged from last month, and pork exports for 2025 fell by 20 million pounds."
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| U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2025-26 | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | 2024-25 | |
| Corn | 16,814 | 16,511 | 16,764 | 16,204 | 16,742 | 14,867 |
| Soybeans | 4,301 | 4,273 | 4,347 | 4,236 | 4,292 | 4,366 |
| U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2025-26 (WASDE) | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | 2024 | |
| Corn | 186.7 | 186.1 | 189.0 | 182.7 | 188.8 | 179.3 |
| Soybeans | 53.5 | 53.3 | 54.0 | 52.9 | 53.6 | 50.7 |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2024-25 | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | ||
| Corn | 1,325 | 1,308 | 1,330 | 1,275 | 1,305 | |
| Soybeans | 330 | 327 | 335 | 306 | 330 | |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2025-26 | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | ||
| Corn | 2,110 | 2,022 | 2,344 | 1,748 | 2,117 | |
| Soybeans | 300 | 293 | 347 | 223 | 290 | |
| Wheat | 844 | 862 | 880 | 836 | 869 | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2024-25 | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | ||
| Corn | 284.2 | 284.4 | 286.0 | 283.2 | 283.1 | |
| Soybeans | 123.6 | 125.6 | 128.0 | 124.4 | 125.2 | |
| Wheat | 262.4 | 263.1 | 265.0 | 262.7 | 262.7 | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2025-26 | ||||||
| Sep | Avg | High | Low | Aug | ||
| Corn | 281.4 | 282.8 | 287.6 | 279.7 | 282.5 | |
| Soybeans | 124.0 | 125.4 | 127.0 | 123.2 | 124.9 | |
| Wheat | 264.1 | 260.8 | 263.0 | 258.4 | 260.1 | |
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