Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An overall favorable harvest weather pattern across the U.S., showers across Argentina, Europe, and Australia, and an eye on central Brazil's rainfall are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Above-normal temperatures are in the forecast for the Midwest for the rest of September. Precipitation will be harder to come by as a ridge to the north tries to block up the pattern and keep rainfall toward the west. Some showers are likely to move through, especially across northern areas, through next week in a few bursts. It is getting late for rainfall to be much help, even for greener northern areas. Any showers would cause some delay to harvest across the south, but drought continues to expand there, and rainfall is needed for winter wheat planting.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Isolated showers will be possible in the Central and Southern Plains through next week as systems try to move through the region with limited success. Showers may not amount to much precipitation for many areas, but some could see a heavy downpour. Temperatures will remain above normal and areas that stay dry should see more favorable conditions for harvest. Those planting winter wheat would find the showers favorable given the recent lack of rainfall and above-normal temperatures.

FREQUENT SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Above-normal temperatures are in the forecast for the Northern Plains through the end of the month, as is frequent precipitation. Immature corn and soybeans would enjoy the precipitation while those looking to harvest will find tougher conditions in which to do so.

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO FALL

Drought continues to expand and water levels are falling on the Lower Mississippi River. Very little rainfall is in the forecast and temperatures are forecast to be above normal. Though that favors harvest in the Delta, the lack of rainfall here and across the Ohio Valley continues to threaten easy transportation up and down the river.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL GETTING RAIN, CENTRAL STATES AWAIT START OF WET SEASON

Spring planting is underway across southern Brazil, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. A couple of fronts moving through could bring in some additional showers next week. Models have trended downward with the precipitation coverage getting into central Brazil next week, but any rainfall would be helpful there until the wet season rains become more frequent in October.

FAVORABLE PLANTING WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers in Argentina, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air may be possible behind a stronger front not next week, but the week after. While that is in the long-range forecast and subject to change, producers may wait anyway. A couple of fronts will move through the country with scattered showers and keep soil conditions favorable, though.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EUROPE

Waves of rain have been falling across Europe over the last several weeks and more are forecast to move through into next week. The rainfall is good for immature summer crops and also winter wheat planting.

DESPITE SOME SHOWERS, DROUGHT A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

A small system brought rainfall to the far southern end of the Black Sea region during the middle of this week. The rainfall was helpful for what remains of filling corn and winter wheat planting. Though the pattern is active over Europe, it is not over this region, and overall drier conditions continue to plague much of the region for the end of filling corn and also winter wheat planting.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA GOT LIMITED RAINFALL, SEEING COLD TEMPERATURES

Significant showers across eastern Australia this week have been helpful as more wheat and canola are getting into reproductive stages. However, colder temperatures have also brought a risk of frost that continues over the next several days too, which could be damaging. Another front will bring showers into Western Australia this weekend and eventually move into southeastern areas early next week, but only provide isolated showers. More are still needed in the eastern growing areas.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Rainfall has been more consistent across central and northeastern China lately, which has favored filling corn and soybeans as well as prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting in central China. Several systems and fronts are forecast to move through over the next couple of weeks, which continues that trend. There may be some issues with the early harvest, though.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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