Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Reduced risks for frost in Argentina and southern Brazil, scattered showers next week in central Brazil, and rain showers in the western Corn Belt are the weather factors driving the markets on Wednesday.

RAIN SHOWERS FAVOR THE WESTERN MIDWEST INTO NEXT WEEK

Frost this past weekend and earlier this week occurred in areas that had very good yield prospects and likely reduced yields where they occurred. The frost risk will be minimal through mid-September as temperatures warm up again. Dry weather in the south and east continue to have negative effects on filling corn and soybeans, but that time has likely run out for any rainfall to have a positive impact there. Showers favor mainly the western Midwest through the end of the week before a front could lead to showers in Illinois and Indiana this weekend.

SHOWERS COULD DELAY HARVEST IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS

Isolated showers will be possible the rest of this week with small disturbances moving through the region. A stronger system will move into the region this weekend with more widespread rainfall being possible. For those trying to harvest, showers will be unfortunate, causing delays. But for those still looking for one more rain, there are some good chances yet.

WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

While some corn and soybeans may have been damaged from frosts this past weekend, the frost risk will be minimal for the rest of this week and through mid-September as temperatures will largely remain above average. Precipitation chances look steady into next week ahead of corn and soybean harvest and any rainfall will be helpful for crops that are finishing maturing. However, any heavier rainfall would slow down the remaining spring wheat harvest.

WET SEASON SHOWERS COULD START NEXT WEEK IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Spring planting will begin shortly in the south and will increase going into October. A few light but spotty rain showers are possible across the region early next week, but until then, conditions will be dry for the rest of this week. Central Brazil will wait until consistent wet season rains arrive, and the newest model runs have showers starting to arrive next week, which would be early and could cause some early soybean planting.

FROST RISKS DIMINISH IN ARGENTINA THE REST OF THIS WEEK

Recent heavy rainfall has been beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting. Widespread frost has not been beneficial for either though, and may have caused damage to wheat. Soil moisture is good enough to plant, and producers may be able to get back out in the fields the rest of the week as low temperatures may stay just above freezing each morning.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF IN SOUTHWEST RUSSIA WITH DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK

Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not with a very poor end to the season. However, a small system in the Black Sea may bring showers through Ukraine and southwestern Russia on Wednesday before being pushed south again. Any rainfall would be helpful for what remains of filling corn and prepping soils for winter wheat planting that starts over the next couple of weeks. Next week, rainfall looks limited again with high pressure dominating the weather pattern across southwest Russia.

COLD RISKS IN SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS

Widespread showers will continue across eastern areas on Wednesday, which would be helpful with more wheat and canola getting into reproductive stages. However, colder temperatures may bring a risk of frost over the next several days too, which could be damaging. Another front will crash into Western Australia this weekend and eventually move into southeastern areas early next week, providing isolated showers.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST CHINA FOR FILLING CROPS

Rainfall has been more consistent across central and northeastern China lately, which has favored filling corn and soybeans as well as prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting. Several systems and fronts are forecast to move through over the next couple of weeks, which is also beneficial.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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