DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A trough has entered the West with a ridge from central Canada through the central U.S. In the East, a trough extends from the Eastern Midwest into the Southeast. By the end of this week, the central U.S. ridge will be sandwiched between two troughs.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Eventually, the trough in the West will try to advance east but may only make it as far as the Great Plains since the ridge may still remain strong across the north-central U.S.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Early next week, a system from the Pacific Northwest will attempt to move east as it broadens into a trough across the center of the country by the end of next week. Showers will likely continue across the Plains through the middle of next week and quite possibly longer. Temperatures will generally be above normal for most areas of the country with the exceptions of the West and East Coasts.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...109 AT 4 MILES SOUTH OF TOLLESON, AZ

LOW TUE...22 AT 5 MILES EAST OF DAVIS, WV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7AM CDT TUESDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 2.63 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough has entered the West with a ridge from central Canada through the central U.S. In the East, a trough extends from the Eastern Midwest into the Southeast. By the end of this week, the Central U.S. ridge will be sandwiched between two troughs. Eventually, the trough in the West will try to advance east but may only make it as far as the Great Plains since the ridge may still remain strong across the North-Central U.S.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Early next week, a system from the Pacific Northwest will attempt to move east as it broadens into a trough across the center of the country by the end of next week. Showers will likely continue across the Plains through the middle of next week and quite possibly longer. Temperatures will generally be above normal for most areas of the country with the exceptions of the West and East Coasts.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): While some corn and soybeans may have been damaged from frosts this past weekend, the frost risk will be minimal for the rest of this week and through mid-September as temperatures will largely remain above average. Precipitation chances look steady into next week ahead of corn and soybean harvest and any rainfall will be helpful for crops that are finishing maturing. However, any heavier rainfall would slow down the remaining spring wheat harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers will be possible the rest of this week with small disturbances moving through the region. A stronger system will move into the region this weekend with more widespread rainfall being possible. For those trying to harvest, showers will be unfortunate, causing delays. But for those still looking for one more rain, there are some good chances yet.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Frost this past weekend and earlier this week occurred in areas that had very good yield prospects and likely reduced yields where they occurred. The frost risk will be minimal through mid-September as temperatures warm up again. Dry weather in the south and east continue to have negative effects on filling corn and soybeans, but that time has likely run out for any rainfall to have a positive impact there.

Showers favor mainly the western Midwest through the end of the week before a front could lead to showers in Illinois and Indiana this weekend.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Drought is expanding and water levels are falling on the Lower Mississippi River.

Conditions are favored to remain mostly dry through this weekend before more moisture arrives next week. Next week's rain may end up being daytime showers and storms that are often spotty and provide insignificant help to drought conditions.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting will begin shortly in the south and will increase going into October. A few light but spotty rain showers are possible across the region early next week, but until then, conditions will be dry for the rest of this week. Central Brazil will wait until consistent wet season rains arrive, and the newest model runs have showers starting to arrive next week, which would be early and could cause some early soybean planting.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent heavy rainfall has been beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting.

Widespread frost has not been beneficial for either though, and may have caused damage to wheat. Soil moisture is good enough to plant, and producers may be able to get back out in the fields the rest of the week as low temperatures may stay just above freezing each morning.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Waves of rain have been falling across the continent over the last couple of weeks and more are forecast to move through into next week. The rainfall is good for immature summer crops and also ahead of winter wheat planting which starts up this month.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not with a very poor end to the season.

However, a small system in the Black Sea may bring showers through Ukraine and southwestern Russia on Wednesday before being pushed south again. Any rainfall would be helpful for what remains of filling corn and prepping soils for winter wheat planting that starts over the next couple of weeks. Next week, rainfall looks limited again with high pressure dominating the weather pattern across southwest Russia.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Widespread showers will continue across eastern areas on Wednesday, which would be helpful with more wheat and canola getting into reproductive stages. However, colder temperatures may bring a risk of frost over the next several days too, which could be damaging. Another front will crash into Western Australia this weekend and eventually move into southeastern areas early next week, providing isolated showers.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rainfall has been more consistent across central and northeastern China lately, which has favored filling corn and soybeans as well as prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

Several systems and fronts are forecast to move through over the next couple of weeks, which is also beneficial.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

East: Isolated showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers, mainly west, Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers north Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

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