Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A burst of cold air moving into the U.S. with limited frost potential across the north, showers across Europe and Australia, and a turning focus on the start of South America's planting season are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COLD AND SOME FROST POTENTIAL FOR MIDWEST

A strong clipper-like system moved into the Midwest on Thursday and continues to push another strong cold front through the region on Friday. Though some isolated showers have developed, amounts have been and continue to be lack-luster in most areas. In addition to showers, the front is bringing through some very cold air. Temperatures may break below 40 degrees Fahrenheit across the north and frosts cannot be ruled out through Monday. If frosts do occur, it would be extremely early and put an end to the season well before normal.

SHOWERS, COOLER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will move through the Central and Southern Plains into the weekend. Scattered showers will move through and continue in the southwest through Monday, but temperatures will take another dip, being below normal again. For maturing corn and soybeans, any rain would not be favorable. However, for those that could still use a rain, it would be. Temperatures will rise next week and should be beneficial for harvest. A few showers may develop in the rising temperatures.

COLD WITH SOME FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air settling into the Northern Plains could mean some frosts over the weekend, especially on Sunday as skies should be clearer and winds should be calmer. Temperatures will at least fall into the 30s in many areas. If frosts do occur, they could quickly end what has been a strong summer of good weather and cut back on yields significantly.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers moved through the Delta this week. Another front will drop south into the region over the weekend with a few showers as well. Otherwise, drier weather should favor maturing crops and harvest. Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to drop and the lack of rainfall in the Ohio Valley especially will cause transportation issues this fall.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL GETTING MORE RAIN AHEAD OF SPRING PLANTING

A front across southern Brazil continues to produce rainfall through Saturday, getting showers as far north as Parana. Another front will move through southern areas with showers Sunday and Monday. Spring planting will begin in a couple of weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south, which seems to be the case. Central Brazil will wait until consistent wet season rains arrive at the end of September or more likely in October, even though some spotty rainfall may be possible later next week.

FROSTS THREATENING WHEAT IN ARGENTINA

Recent heavy rainfall was beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting in Argentina, which begins in a couple of weeks. Cold air is producing some frosts through the weekend though, and heading winter wheat may have sustained some damage. Another burst of colder air moves through next week behind another system moving through with limited rainfall. Producers may delay the start of corn planting until they feel temperatures will cooperate.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EUROPE

An upper-level system has brought waves of showers through much of Europe this week. More rain is expected to move through in several waves next week as well. For areas with immature corn and other summer crops, the rain has been and will be beneficial. It will also prep soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins this month.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not as the poor end of the season continues for much of the region, especially southwestern Russia. The active pattern over Europe will continue to largely bypass the region, which not only puts on a bad end to the current season, but also is poor for the coming winter wheat planting season, which begins this month.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA MAY GET SOME NEEDED RAIN THIS WEEKEND, EARLY NEXT WEEK

A system will move through Western Australia on Friday with widespread showers. The system will lose a lot of its potential for showers as it moves through the east this weekend, but may bring a better shot of rain with a secondary system early next week, at least for some areas. Western Australia has had favorable weather conditions for the last couple of months while the east has had hit-or-miss weather and longer stretches of low precipitation or complete dryness. With wheat heading, we could be seeing some yield limitations in the east if the rain does not pick up soon.

FAVORABLE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL CHINA

Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Another system will move through on Friday with another one or two next week with beneficial finishing rains for corn and soybeans. The heavier rainfall in the central is also favorable for prepping soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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