DTN Early Word Livestock Comments

Cattle: Steady Futures: Higher Live Equiv: $298.45 -$0.88*

Hogs: Steady Futures: Lower Lean Equiv: $119.29 -$1.41**

*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures have spent the first week of September trading lower. The speed at which futures have climbed warrant a setback. Cash values are relatively steady to slightly weaker in the north. Comments from local sale barns indicate that sale numbers are light compared to this time last year as producers are either holding for higher weights or exploring other options to market their crop.

Pork cutouts down $1.41 at $113.32. Slaughter numbers were at 489,000 -- up 2,000 head higher than last week and 8,000 higher than this time last year. Picnic cuts saw a big decline of $7.73 impacting carcass prices.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle herd sizes are small, with no solution in sight to grow supply.	1)	With the speed that cattle futures have climbed, speculators are easily spooked as exiting the market here is generally profitable for most long positions in holding, and the risk is great if prices decline rapidly.
2)	Mexican border is closed for the foreseeable future as New World screwworm (NWS) cases are on the rise.	2)	Cash prices in the north are worth watching as they have become weaker. It could be an early indicator of overall cattle price weakness.
3)	Hog cash prices were slightly higher despite Wednesday's futures sell off.	3)	Hog slaughter numbers for this week are well above this time last year and higher than last week. A trend in this direction will lead to more product availability.
4)	With Monday being a holiday, hog packers may be more aggressive Friday to finish out the week with the numbers needed to meet their orders.	4)	Hog carcass prices and cutout values are starting to lose ground.

For our next livestock update, please visit our Midday Livestock comments between 11 a.m. and noon CST. Also, stay tuned to our Quick Takes throughout the day for periodic updates on the futures markets.

Robin Schmahl can be reached at rschmahl@agdairy.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.