Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another burst of cold air moving into the U.S. with limited frost potential, showers across Europe and Australia, and a turning focus on the start of South America's planting season are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

COLD AND SOME FROST POTENTIAL FOR MIDWEST

A front moved through the Midwest over the last couple of days and another will move through tonight and Friday. In addition to scattered showers, the fronts are bringing through some very cold air. Temperatures may break below 40 degrees Fahrenheit across the north and frosts cannot be ruled out through Monday. If frosts do occur, it would be extremely early and put an end to the season well before normal.

SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will move through Friday into the weekend. Scattered showers will be possible with both fronts, but temperatures will take another dive, being below normal into Monday. A system will likely develop in the region along the stalled front again Sunday or Monday with more showers moving through the south. For maturing corn and soybeans, any rain would not be favorable. However, for those that could still use a rain, it would be. Temperatures will rise next week and should be beneficial for harvest.

COLD WITH SOME FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Another strong front will move through the Northern Plains on Thursday with another round of cold air that could mean some frosts through the weekend. Temperatures will at least fall into the 30s in many areas. If frosts do occur, they could quickly end what has been a strong summer of good weather and cut back on yields significantly.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers moved through the Delta this week. Another front will drop south into the region over the weekend with a few showers as well. Otherwise, drier weather should favor maturing crops and harvest. Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to drop and the lack of rainfall in the Ohio Valley especially will cause transportation issues this fall.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL GETTING HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF SPRING PLANTING

A front across southern Brazil will continue to produce rainfall through Saturday, getting showers as far north as Parana. Another front will move through southern areas with showers Sunday and Monday. Spring planting will begin in a couple of weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south, which seems to be the case. Central Brazil will wait until wet season rains arrive at the end of September or more likely in October.

FROSTS THREATENING WHEAT IN ARGENTINA

Recent heavy rainfall in Argentina was beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting, which begins in a couple of weeks. Cold air is producing some frosts though and heading winter wheat may have sustained some damage. Producers may delay the start of corn planting until they feel temperatures will cooperate. A couple of fronts over the next couple of weeks may bring through some more risks of cold air and frosts that could cause damage to winter crops and delays to harvest.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EUROPE

An upper-level system has brought waves of showers through much of Europe again this week. More rain is expected to move through in several waves next week as well. For areas with immature corn and other summer crops, the rain has been and will be beneficial. It will also prep soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins this month.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not as the poor end of the season continues for much of the region, especially southwestern Russia. The active pattern over Europe will continue to largely bypass the region, which not only puts on a bad end to the current season, but also is poor for the coming winter wheat planting season, which begins this month.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA MAY GET SOME NEEDED RAIN THIS WEEKEND, EARLY NEXT WEEK

A system will move through Western Australia over the next couple of days with widespread showers. The system will lose a lot of its potential for showers as it moves through the east this weekend, but may bring a better shot of rain with a secondary system early next week, at least for some areas. Western Australia has had favorable weather conditions for the last couple of months while the east has had hit-or-miss weather and longer stretches of low precipitation or complete dryness. With wheat heading, we could be seeing some yield limitations in the east.

FAVORABLE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL CHINA

Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Central China will go through a brief dry period through the middle of the week before another system moves through for late week. The heavier rainfall in the central is also favorable for prepping soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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