Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another burst of cold air moving into the U.S. with limited frost potential, showers across Europe and Australia, and a turning focus on the start of South America's planting season are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

ANOTHER BURST OF COLD FOR MIDWEST

A pair of fronts will move through the Midwest over the next few days, which will bring a couple of rounds of showers. Most of the crop could still use a drink, but it's starting to get a little late except for those that had to plant late or replant because of wet conditions this spring. Temperatures behind the fronts will again drop down well below normal and some areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin might see a frost over the next several mornings. If frosts do occur, it would be extremely early and put an end to the season well before normal.

SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will slip through the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday with a stronger one Friday into the weekend. Scattered showers will be possible with both fronts, but temperatures will take another dip, especially behind the second front. A system will likely develop in the region along the stalled front again Sunday or Monday with more showers moving through. For maturing corn and soybeans, any rain would not be favorable. However, for those that could still use a rain, it would be.

COLD AIR ENTERING NORTHERN PLAINS

A strong front moved through the Northern Plains on Tuesday with a significant drop in temperature. Another strong front will move through on Thursday with another round of cold air that could mean some frosts heading into the weekend. If frosts do occur, they could quickly end what has been a strong summer of good weather and cut back on yields.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers continue to be in the Delta on Wednesday that could be a little heavy in some small areas. Another front will drop south into the region over the weekend with a few showers as well. Otherwise, drier weather should favor maturing crops and harvest.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL GETTING HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF SPRING PLANTING

A front moved into far southern Brazil over the long weekend. That front could be more active throughout the week, getting showers as far north as Parana by the weekend. Spring planting will begin in a couple of weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Central Brazil will wait until wet season rains arrive at the end of September or more likely in October.

FROSTS THREATENING WHEAT IN ARGENTINA

A system moved through Argentina over the past weekend which brought areas of heavy rain that should be beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting, which begins in a couple of weeks. Cold air produced some frosts though, and heading winter wheat may have sustained some damage. Producers may delay the start of corn planting until they feel temperatures will cooperate.

WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EUROPE

An upper-level system continues to bring waves of showers through much of Europe this week. More rain is expected to move through in several waves next week as well. For areas with immature corn and other summer crops, the rain has been and will be beneficial. It will also prep soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins later this month.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

Though Europe has been active with rainfall lately, the Black Sea region has not as the poor end of the season continues for much of the region, especially southwestern Russia. The active pattern over Europe will continue to largely bypass the region, which not only puts on a bad end to the current season, but also is poor for the coming winter wheat planting season, which begins later this month.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEEDS MORE RAIN, MAY GET SOME THIS WEEKEND

A system will move through Western Australia later this week with widespread showers in the forecast. The system will lose a lot of its potential for showers as it moves through the east this weekend into early next week. Western Australia has had favorable weather conditions for the last couple of months while the east has had hit-or-miss weather and longer stretches of low precipitation or complete dryness. With wheat heading, we could be seeing some yield limitations in the east.

FAVORABLE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL CHINA

Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Central China will go through a brief dry period through the middle of the week before another system moves through for late week. The heavier rainfall in the central is also favorable for prepping soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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