DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. Another trough is pushing south through central Canada and will deepen significantly across the eastern half of the U.S. over the next couple of days.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will be slow to move eastward over the weekend, with the Canadian portion of the ridge spreading eastward behind it. A portion of the trough may be left behind across the Southeast next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A cold front will be stalled across the south this weekend, which may produce some showers. Temperatures behind the front will be cool this weekend, but moderate next week. Because a portion of the trough will be left over, a low-pressure center will likely move into the Plains next week, slowly pushing eastward. Showers may spread north into the Corn Belt because of it.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...119 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...24 AT 16 MILES WEST OF REDFEATHER LAKES, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...LINCOLN, NE 2.02 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. Another trough is pushing south through central Canada and will deepen significantly across the eastern half of the U.S. over the next couple of days. The trough will be slow to move eastward over the weekend, with the Canadian portion of the ridge spreading eastward behind it. A portion of the trough may be left behind across the Southeast next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A cold front will be stalled across the south this weekend, which may produce some showers. Temperatures behind the front will be cool this weekend, but moderate next week. Because a portion of the trough will be left over, a low-pressure center will likely move into the Plains next week, slowly pushing eastward. Showers may spread north into the Corn Belt because of it.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A weak system brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region over the long holiday weekend, including an area of heavy rain in South Dakota. A strong front moving through on Tuesday will bring a few showers but a significant drop in temperature. Another strong front will move through on Thursday with another round of cold air that could mean some frosts heading into the weekend. If frosts do occur, they could quickly end what has been a strong summer of good weather and cut back on yields.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A weak system meandering about the region produced widespread showers and thunderstorms over the long holiday weekend, including some areas of heavy rain. A front will slip through the region Wednesday and Thursday with a stronger one Friday into the weekend.

Some additional showers will be possible with both fronts, but temperatures will take another dip, especially behind the second front. A system will likely develop in the region along the stalled front again Sunday or Monday with more showers moving through. For maturing corn and soybeans, any rain would not be favorable. However, for those that could still use a rain, it would be favorable.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A weak system in the Plains pushed a few showers into the western reaches of the region over the long holiday weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Those in the south and east stayed too dry and did not find the conditions favorable. A pair of fronts will move through this week, which will bring a couple of rounds of showers. Most of the crop could still use a drink, but it's starting to get a little late except for those that had to plant late or replant because of wet conditions this spring.

Temperatures behind the fronts will again drop down well below normal and some areas in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin might see a frost. However, that is not forecast to occur over much agricultural land.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Most areas stayed dry over the long holiday weekend as maturing crops got a break from the heavy rainfall from late last week. Isolated showers will be in the region through Wednesday that could be a little heavy in some small areas. Otherwise, drier weather should favor maturing crops and harvest.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved into the far south over the long weekend but did not produce much precipitation. That front could be more active throughout the week, getting showers as far north as Parana by the weekend. Spring planting will begin in a couple of weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Central Brazil will wait until wet season rains arrive at the end of September or more likely in October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved through over the weekend which brought areas of heavy rain that should be beneficial for heading wheat as well as increasing soil moisture ahead of corn planting, which begins in a couple of weeks. Cold air produced some frosts though, and heading winter wheat may have sustained some damage. Producers may delay the start of corn planting until they feel temperatures will cooperate.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level system brought waves of showers through much of the continent over the weekend and will continue to do so this week as well. For areas with immature corn and other summer crops, the rain has been and will be beneficial. It will also prep soils ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins later this month.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though Europe was active with rainfall over the weekend, the Black Sea region was not, and stayed hot and dry, as the poor end of the season continues for much of the region, especially southwestern Russia.

A couple of lucky spots will see showers Tuesday and Wednesday, but most areas will stay dry. The active pattern over Europe will continue to bypass the region, which not only puts on a bad end to the current season, but also is poor for the coming winter wheat planting season, which begins later this month.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was largely dry over the long holiday weekend, though cold air moving into the east produced some limited frosts for a few unlucky spots. A system will move through Western Australia later this week with widespread showers in the forecast. The system will lose a lot of its punch and potential for showers as it moves through this weekend into early next week. Western Australia has had favorable weather conditions for the last couple of months while the east has had hit-or-miss weather and longer stretches of low precipitation or complete dryness. With wheat heading, we could be seeing some yield limitations in the east.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Central China will go through a brief dry period through the middle of the week before another system moves through later next week. The heavier rainfall in the central is also favorable for prepping soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Thursday.

Temperatures below normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south through Thursday, north Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal north and below normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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