DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The Canadian portion of the ridge will spread eastward over the weekend, cutting off the trough and keeping it there.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A new trough will move down through Central Canada early next week and build across much of the middle of the continent before slowly pushing eastward next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A cold front will sweep through the country mid-late next week with areas of showers and a significant drop in temperature. Temperatures will be below normal east of the Rockies next week, though should moderate some next weekend as the trough pushes eastward.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...107 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX, AND 4 MILES SOUTH OF TOLLESON, AZ

LOW THU...31 AT 5 MILES EAST OF DAVIS, WV, AND 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JUNE LAKE, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...LITTLE ROCK, AR 4.99 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The Canadian portion of the ridge will spread eastward over the weekend, cutting off the trough and keeping it there. A new trough will move down through Central Canada early next week and build across much of the middle of the continent before slowly pushing eastward next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A cold front will sweep through the country mid-late next week with areas of showers and a significant drop in temperature. Temperatures will be below normal east of the Rockies next week, though should moderate some next weekend as the trough pushes eastward.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A weak system moving into the region will bring scattered showers through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest. Another cold front will sweep through early next week, providing more scattered showers and another shot of colder air.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought areas of heavy rain to the region throughout the week. A new system is developing and will bring more showers going into next week. Another strong cold front should sweep through the region mid-late next week with more showers and another burst of colder air. While some corn and soybeans are enjoying some good rainfall, maturing crops are finding the conditions unfavorable.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers moved through the Great Lakes with a front on Thursday, but most areas have been dry for a while.

Those in the south and east have seen dryness and drought increasing and need rainfall. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress. A system will bring some showers to western areas early next week, but a front will go sweeping through the region mid-late next week with more widespread showers and a significant drop in temperature. The rain is not likely to be heavy for those areas that need it.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Heavy rain moved through portions of the region on Thursday and more heavy rain continues across the south on Friday. Though many of these areas need the rain to combat the building drought in the region, those in the north are still dry, and those in the south would prefer the drier weather for harvest. Poor finishing weather likely reduced yields in this region.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry and warm conditions largely continue through the weekend as harvest weather has been better this week. A strong front will move through early next week with some limited showers but a large drop in temperature again.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Recent rainfall in the south has been helpful for heading to filling wheat. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week, but showers will be spotty and mainly favor Rio Grande Do Sul.

Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Central Brazil will wait until wet season rains arrive at the end of September or more likely in October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A system will move through over the weekend, which should bring more widespread, beneficial rainfall for heading wheat. Recent rainfall has been helpful to increase soil moisture ahead of the spring planting season, which begins in a few weeks.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of the continent that will last through next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): While Ukraine had been getting some shots of rainfall, southwest Russia continues to see relatively dry and hot conditions.

Systems moving through Europe are unlikely to produce much of any precipitation in the region through next week, instead keeping the region hotter and drier.

That is poor finishing weather for corn and sunflowers, as well as for winter wheat planting, which begins next month.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Showers in Western Australia have been favorable for winter wheat and canola in recent weeks. Southeastern Australia is benefiting from more rainfall this week after the recent dry conditions.

Wheat and canola in their reproductive stages will benefit from another round of rain late this week. However, this system will also bring in some cold air for the weekend and may produce some localized frosts.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Central China will have a brief dry period late this weekend into the middle of next week before another system moves through later next week. The heavier rainfall in the central is also favorable for prepping soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers south Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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