Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another burst of cold air moving into the U.S. next week, dry conditions for harvest in the Canadian Prairies, and showers across Europe and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ANOTHER BURST OF COLD ON TAP FOR MIDWEST

Some showers moved through the Great Lakes with a front Thursday, but most of the Midwest has been dry for a while. Those in the south and east have seen dryness and drought increasing and need rainfall. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress. A system will bring some showers to western areas early next week, but a front will go sweeping through the region mid- to late-next week with more widespread showers and another significant drop in temperature. The rain is not likely to be heavy for those areas that need it.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN

A front brought areas of heavy rain to the Central and Southern Plains throughout the week. A new system is developing and will bring more showers going into next week. Another strong cold front should sweep through the region mid-late next week with more showers and another burst of colder air. While some corn and soybeans are enjoying some good rainfall, maturing crops are finding the conditions unfavorable.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A weak system moving into the Northern Plains will bring scattered showers through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the remaining spring wheat harvest. Another cold front will sweep through early next week, providing more scattered showers and another shot of colder air.

HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN DELTA

Heavy rain moved through portions of the Delta on Thursday and more heavy rain continues across the south on Friday. Though many of these areas need the rain to combat the building drought in the region, those in the north are still dry, and those in the south would prefer the drier weather for harvest. Poor finishing weather likely reduced yields in this region.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SEE MORE COLD WEATHER NEXT WEEK

Dry and warm conditions largely continue in the Canadian Prairies through the weekend as harvest weather has been better this week. A strong front will move through early next week with some limited showers but a large drop in temperature again.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL GETTING SOME RAIN AHEAD OF SPRING PLANTING

Recent rainfall in southern Brazil has been helpful for heading to filling wheat. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week, but showers will be spotty and mainly favor Rio Grande Do Sul. Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Central Brazil will wait until wet season rains arrive at the end of September or more likely in October.

WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE THROUGH NEXT WEEK

An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of Europe that will last through next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

While Ukraine had been getting some shots of rainfall, southwest Russia continues to see relatively dry and hot conditions. Systems moving through Europe are unlikely to produce much of any precipitation in the region through next week, instead keeping the region hotter and drier. That is poor finishing weather for corn and sunflowers, as well as for winter wheat planting, which begins next month.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA GOT SOME NEEDED RAIN, NEEDS MORE

Showers in Western Australia have been favorable for winter wheat and canola in recent weeks. Southeastern Australia is benefiting from more rainfall this week after the recent dry conditions. Wheat and canola in their reproductive stages will benefit from another round of rain late this week. However, this system will also bring in some cold air for the weekend and may produce some localized frosts.

FAVORABLE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL CHINA

Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Central China will have a brief dry period late this weekend into the middle of next week before another system moves through later next week. The heavier rainfall in the central is also favorable for prepping soils ahead of winter wheat and canola planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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