Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Areas of heavy rain in the Delta, isolated showers in the Eastern Corn Belt, and cooler temperatures east of the Rockies are the weather factors driving the markets on Thursday.

DRY CONDITIONS CAUSING YIELD REDUCTIONS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST

Cooler air will generally be in the region through next week as it gets a couple of reinforcing shots later this week and again next week. Some showers will move through the Great Lakes with a front on Thursday, but most areas are likely to remain dry until a slow-moving system moves through next week. Many of the dry areas in the south and east need rainfall and the dry forecast is not favorable. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress.

WET AND COOL PATTERN UNFAVORABLE FOR FINISHING CROPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is largely stalled in the region, which has already produced scattered showers and thunderstorms, and will produce more through Thursday before being pushed south. However, in its wake, a new system will develop in the Northern Plains and bring isolated showers into the region going into next week. Temperatures remain cool through next week. Overall, the wet and cool conditions are unfavorable for finishing crops.

ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR ON THE WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

After the recent cooler air, temperatures have rebounded closer to normal. A weak system will move into the region with scattered showers on Friday and slowly moves eastward through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest. Another cold front will sweep through early next week, providing more scattered showers and another shot of cooler air.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR FINISHING CROPS IN THE DELTA

A low-pressure center moves along a front on Thursday and Friday. Some pockets of heavy rain are possible across southern Missouri and Arkansas. Finishing weather for corn and soybeans has been poor in the region and could have led to reduced yields. The same goes for cotton that is moving more into the fill stages as well. Below-average temperatures are likely through the first week of September.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A strong upper-air ridge has led to relatively dry and warm conditions across the region this week that will continue into the weekend. The dry and warm conditions are favorable for maturing crops and harvest. By early next week, a cold front will sweep through from the north and slightly cooler air will arrive for eastern areas, allowing temperatures to drop closer to average. Temperatures will likely not get cold enough for frost to be widespread.

POTENTIAL FOR A STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

Recent rainfall in the south has been helpful for heading to filling wheat. After a brief stretch of cooler temperatures, they're expected to trend above average late this week and this weekend. Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week, but showers will be spotty and mainly favor Rio Grande Do Sul.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

While some advanced wheat could have received damage from recent frosts, temperatures will start to trend warmer late this week. A system will move through during the weekend, which should bring more widespread rainfall. Recent rainfall has been helpful to increase soil moisture well ahead of the spring planting season.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN EUROPE AHEAD OF WINTER WHEAT PLANTING

An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of the continent that will last into next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September. Temperatures will fluctuate between near to below average in the west through next week while above-average temperatures remain likely in the east.

DRY CONDITIONS PLAGUE SOUTHWEST RUSSIA INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER

While Ukraine is getting some shots of rainfall, southwest Russia continues to see relatively dry and hot conditions. Early next week, a few spotty showers will try to make it into southwest Russia, but rainfall will be hit or miss, unfavorable for filling corn and sunflowers. More rainfall is needed ahead of winter wheat planting that should start up in September.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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