DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The trough will get a reinforcing shot on Thursday that will keep it around through the weekend. The northern half of the ridge in western Canada will spread east across Canada this weekend, cutting off the trough. Another trough will dive into central Canada in the middle of next week, which will likely spread east of the Rockies in the U.S. through late next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The trough in the East will likely not stick around long as a ridge from the central U.S. forces it offshore next weekend. Temperatures will generally stay near or below normal east of the Rockies this weekend through next week, while the West stays above normal.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...109 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW WED...28 AT 5 MILES EAST OF DAVIS, WV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SANTA FE, NM 1.14 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and a trough in the East. The trough will get a reinforcing shot on Thursday that will keep it around through the weekend. The northern half of the ridge in western Canada will spread east across Canada this weekend, cutting off the trough. Another trough will dive into central Canada in the middle of next week, which will likely spread east of the Rockies in the U.S. through late next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The trough in the East will likely not stick around long as a ridge from the central U.S. forces it offshore next weekend. Temperatures will generally stay near or below normal east of the Rockies this weekend through next week, while the West stays above normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): After the recent cooler air, temperatures have rebounded closer to normal. A weak system will move into the region with scattered showers on Friday and slowly moves eastward through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest. Another cold front will sweep through early next week, providing more scattered showers and another shot of cooler air.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is largely stalled in the region, which has already produced scattered showers and thunderstorms, and will produce more through Thursday before being pushed south. However, in its wake, a new system will develop in the Northern Plains and bring isolated showers into the region going into next week. Temperatures remain cool through next week. Overall, the wet and cool conditions are unfavorable for finishing crops.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cooler air will generally be in the region through next week as it gets a couple of reinforcing shots later this week and again next week. Some showers will move through the Great Lakes with a front on Thursday, but most areas are likely to remain dry until a slow-moving system moves through next week. Many of the dry areas in the south and east need rainfall and the dry forecast is not favorable. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A low-pressure center moves along a front on Thursday and Friday. Some pockets of heavy rain are possible across southern Missouri and Arkansas. Finishing weather for corn and soybeans has been poor in the region, and could have led to reduced yields. The same goes for cotton that is moving more into the fill stages as well. Below-average temperatures are likely through the first week of September.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A strong upper-air ridge has led to relatively dry and warm conditions across the region this week that will continue into the weekend. The dry and warm conditions are favorable for maturing crops and harvest. By early next week, a cold front will sweep through from the north and slightly cooler air will arrive for eastern areas, allowing temperatures to drop closer to average. Temperatures will likely not get cold enough for frost to be widespread.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Recent rainfall in the south has been helpful for heading to filling wheat. After a brief stretch of cooler temperatures, they're expected to trend above average late this week and this weekend. Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week, but showers will be spotty and mainly favor Rio Grande Do Sul.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): While some advanced wheat could have received damage from recent frosts, temperatures will start to trend warmer late this week. A system will move through during the weekend, which should bring more widespread rainfall. Recent rainfall has been helpful to increase soil moisture well ahead of the spring planting season.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of the continent that will last into next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September.

Temperatures will fluctuate between near to below average in the west through next week while above-average temperatures remain likely in the east.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): While Ukraine is getting some shots of rainfall, southwest Russia continues to see relatively dry and hot conditions. Early next week, a few spotty showers will try to make it into southwest Russia, but rainfall will be hit or miss, unfavorable for filling corn and sunflowers. More rainfall is needed ahead of winter wheat planting that should start up in September.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Showers in Western Australia have been favorable for winter wheat and canola in recent weeks. Southeastern Australia is benefiting from more rainfall this week after the recent dry conditions.

Wheat and canola in their reproductive stages will benefit from another round of rain late this week. However, this system will also bring in some cold air, spotty snowfall, and damaging frosts will be possible as well.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent rainfall across central China has been favorable given the region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions. Central China will have a brief dry period late this weekend into the middle of next week before another system moves through later next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Thursday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

East: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to well below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers south Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Isolated showers west Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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