Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The rainy pattern in the Southern Plains starts shifting to the Delta, dry conditions in the southern Midwest, and a hot and dry pattern in the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

DRY CONDITIONS CAUSING YIELD REDUCTIONS IN THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST

Cooler air will generally be in the region through next week as it gets a couple of reinforcing shots later this week and again next week. Some showers will move through the Great Lakes with a front Thursday, but most areas are likely to remain dry until a slow-moving system moves through next week. Many of the dry areas in the south and east need rainfall and the dry forecast is not favorable. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN

A front is largely stalled in the region, which has already produced scattered showers and thunderstorms, and will produce more through Thursday before being pushed south. However, in its wake, a new system will develop in the Northern Plains and bring isolated showers into the region going into next week. Temperatures remain cool throughout next week.

SHOWERS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

After the recent cooler air, temperatures will rebound closer to normal on Wednesday. Dry conditions are forecast through Thursday, but a weak system will move into the region with scattered showers on Friday and slowly moves eastward through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR FINISHING CROPS IN THE DELTA

Showers remain limited across the region until a low-pressure center moves along the front on Thursday and Friday. Some pockets of heavy rain are possible across southern Missouri and Arkansas. Finishing weather for corn and soybeans has been poor in the region and could have led to reduced yields. The same goes for cotton that is moving more into the fill stages as well.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

After this past weekend's cooler temperatures, they will moderate and largely go above normal through the weekend. With most crops maturing and awaiting harvest, the frost was not a major issue but could have affected some fields. Precipitation will be very limited this week, and the overall dry conditions will be favorable for harvest. Another shot of cooler air will arrive early next week, but frost will likely not be widespread.

POTENTIAL FOR A STALLED FRONT IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

Recent rainfall in the south has been helpful for heading to filling wheat. After a brief stretch of cooler temperatures, they're expected to trend above average late this week and this weekend. Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week, but showers will be spotty.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

While some advanced wheat could have received damage from recent frosts, temperatures will start to trend warmer late this week. A system will move through late Friday through the weekend, which should bring more widespread rainfall. Recent rainfall has been helpful to increase soil moisture well ahead of the spring planting season.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN EUROPE AHEAD OF WINTER WHEAT PLANTING

An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of the continent that will last into next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September. Temperatures will fluctuate between near to below average in the west through next week while above-average temperatures remain likely in the east.

DRY CONDITIONS PLAGUE SOUTHWEST RUSSIA INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER

A system brought showers through Ukraine over the weekend, but turned into very isolated showers in southwestern Russia, which has endured a lot of heat and dryness this summer. Dry conditions for much of this week will continue to be unfavorable for filling corn and sunflowers. It also puts winter wheat planting behind schedule in many areas, which should start up in September.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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