Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A rainy pattern in the Southern Plains, dry and cool conditions in the Midwest, and a hot and dry pattern in the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

LIMITED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST IN MIDWEST

Cooler air will generally be in the region through next week as it gets a couple of reinforcing shots later this week and again next week. Some showers will move through the Great Lakes with a front on Thursday, but most areas are likely to remain dry until a slow-moving system moves through next week. Many of the dry areas in the south and east need rainfall and the dry forecast is not favorable. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress.

WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is largely stalled in the region, which has already produced scattered showers and thunderstorms, and will produce more through Thursday before being pushed south. However, in its wake, a new system will develop in the Northern Plains and bring isolated showers into the region going into next week. Temperatures remain cool through next week.

SHOWERS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Colder air moved into the region late last week and will stick around for another day before temperatures rebound to near normal at midweek. Morning lows fell into the 30s both Sunday and Monday mornings in a couple of spots, but frost generally did not occur. Dry conditions are forecast for much of the week, but a weak system will move into the region with scattered showers on Friday and slowly moves eastward through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest.

HEAVY RAIN RETURNS TO THE DELTA LATE THIS WEEK

Though a front moved into the region and largely stalled, showers have been isolated to non-existent over the weekend and very few showers are forecast in the region until a low-pressure center moves along the front on Thursday and Friday. Finishing weather for corn and soybeans has been poor in the region and could have led to reduced yields. The same goes for cotton that is moving more into the fill stages as well.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Cold air moved into the region over the weekend, and some patchy areas of frost were noted or possible in several areas. Temperatures will moderate and largely go above normal over the next couple of days. With most crops maturing and awaiting harvest, the frost was not a major issue but could have affected some fields. Precipitation will be very limited this week, and the overall dry conditions will be favorable for harvest.

PERIODIC SHOWERS TAG SOUTHERN BRAZIL INTO NEXT WEEK

A front moved into the south over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rain, which are helpful for heading to filling wheat. Some frosts will be possible behind the front for the next couple of mornings, which could be damaging. Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

Frosts developed in some areas over the weekend, which may have been damaging to some more advanced wheat. A couple more frosty mornings will be possible across the north that will need to be monitored as well. A system will move through late Friday through the weekend, which should bring more widespread rainfall. Recent rainfall has been helpful to increase soil moisture well ahead of the spring planting season.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN EUROPE AHEAD OF WINTER WHEAT PLANTING

An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of the continent starting on Tuesday and lasting into next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September.

DRY CONDITIONS PLAGUE SOUTHWEST RUSSIA INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER

A system brought showers through Ukraine over the weekend, but turned into very isolated showers in southwestern Russia, which has endured a lot of heat and dryness this summer. Dry conditions for much of this week will continue to be unfavorable for filling corn and sunflowers. It also puts winter wheat planting behind schedule in many areas, which should start up in September.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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