Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cool temperatures for the end of August and beginning of September in the U.S., dry conditions for harvest in the Canadian Prairies, and showers across Europe and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

COLD AND LARGELY DRY IN THE MIDWEST

A big cold front moved through the Midwest over the weekend and temperatures have fallen significantly behind it. The cooler air will generally be in the region through next week as it gets a couple of reinforcing shots later this week and again next week. Some showers will move through the Great Lakes with a front on Thursday, but most areas are likely to remain dry until a slow-moving system moves through next week. Many of the dry areas in the south and east need rainfall and the dry forecast is not favorable. Some reduction in yields is likely occurring, despite the cool temperatures and low stress.

STALLED FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING RAIN

A front is largely stalled in the Central and Southern Plains, which has already produced scattered showers and thunderstorms and will produce more through Thursday before being pushed south. However, in its wake, a new system will develop in the Northern Plains and bring isolated showers into the region going into next week. Temperatures remain cool through next week.

COLD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SHOWERS LATE WEEK

Colder air moved into the Northern Plains late last week and will stick around for a few days before temperatures rebound to near normal midweek. Morning lows fell into the 30s both Sunday and Monday mornings in a couple of spots, but frost generally did not occur. Dry conditions are forecast for much of the week, but a weak system will move into the region with scattered showers on Friday and slowly moves eastward through the weekend. The rainfall will be helpful for filling corn and soybeans, but not for spring wheat harvest.

STALLED FRONT IN THE DELTA MORE ACTIVE LATER THIS WEEK

Though a front moved into the Delta and largely stalled, showers have been isolated to non-existent over the weekend and very few showers are forecast in the region until a low-pressure center moves along the front on Thursday and Friday. Finishing weather for corn and soybeans has been poor in the region, and could have led to reduced yields. The same goes for cotton that is moving more into the fill stages as well.

DRYNESS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES PROMOTING HARVEST THIS WEEK

Cold air moved into the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and some patchy areas of frost were noted or possible in several areas. Temperatures will moderate early this week and largely go above normal over the next couple of days. With most crops maturing and awaiting harvest, the frost was not a major issue, but could have affected some fields. Precipitation will be very limited this week, and the overall dry conditions will be favorable for harvest.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL GETTING MORE RAIN AHEAD OF SPRING PLANTING

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rain, which are helpful for heading to filling wheat. Some frosts will be possible behind the front for the next couple of mornings, which could be damaging. Spring planting will begin in a few weeks as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. Another system should bring in some more rain early next week.

WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EUROPE THIS WEEK

An upper-level system will produce waves of showers across much of Europe starting on Tuesday and lasting into next week. For filling corn and other summer crops, the rain will be beneficial. It will also prime some of the soils for winter wheat planting, which will begin in September.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

A system brought showers through Ukraine over the weekend, but turned into very isolated showers in southwestern Russia, which has endured a lot of heat and dryness this summer. Dry conditions for much of this week will continue to be unfavorable for filling corn and sunflowers. It also puts winter wheat planting behind schedule in many areas, which should start up in September.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA GETTING SOME NEEDED RAIN, NEEDS MORE

A front produced areas of heavy rainfall again in Western Australia over the weekend, as conditions for winter wheat and canola have been increasing in recent weeks. The front will struggle to produce much precipitation for southeastern Australia early this week, which has been suffering more of a dry trend and needs rain as wheat and canola are in their reproductive stages. A system may move through later this week that would possibly bring more widespread showers that would help. However, it will also bring in some cold air and damaging frosts will be possible as well.

RAINFALL CONTINUES IN CENTRAL CHINA

A stalled front continued to produce beneficial rainfall to central China over the weekend. The region has had issues with heat and dryness throughout much of the season. Another front will move through midweek with more potential beneficial showers. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.