Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong cold front producing a burst of cooler temperatures for the end of August in the U.S., and showers across Europe and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COLDER, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Some areas from Missouri to Illinois are still on the dry side after being missed by an active weather pattern over the last several weeks across the Midwest. Another front will move through Friday into the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week that will feel like fall and reduce stress for some areas that are drier. These dry areas need rain though to finish up, but this run of dryness is not good for that prospect. A reinforcing cold front late next week may bring a few showers through, but not the amount of rain those in the south and east need.

STRONG FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, STALLING

A front will move through the Central Plains on Friday through the weekend, stalling across the Southern Plains where rain may be heavy going into next week. A significant drop in temperature will follow behind that front that will make it feel like fall. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region due to regular rainfall.

COLD AIR MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS

A burst of much cooler air will settle into the Northern Plains behind a cold front on Friday that will make it feel like fall going into next week. Recent rainfall has been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the spring wheat harvest. Some drier conditions in the forecast may help with that.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers continue in the Delta, especially across the south. Though a front will move in and stall this weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been popping up and drought has been quickly expanding across the region, hurting the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton. Harvest has started for corn and soybeans though, which will only increase going into September.

DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES, SLIGHT RISK OF FROST

A system continues with some showers in the eastern Canadian Prairies on Friday. Temperatures behind the front are taking a big dive, especially across the east through Monday. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur. Largely dry weather follows for next week, which would be beneficial for maturing and harvest of crops.

ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRAZIL

In Brazil, spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. A will produce more rain across the south this weekend, which could be favorably heavy in some areas. Some frosts may occur behind the front, though, which would be concerning for advancing wheat.

SYSTEM EXITING EASTERN EUROPE

A system continues to bring showers to eastern Europe on Friday, after producing some good rainfall from France to Italy earlier this week. Temperatures have fallen behind the system, reducing stress. Another system may do something similar late next week and weekend. The rainfall is good for filling corn where it occurs, though there are some drier spots across the north that could use some rain.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION STILL DRY DESPITE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH

A system moving through Europe may bring more widespread showers to Ukraine on Friday, but those are forecast to become isolated farther east this weekend. Eastern areas of the Black Sea region have endured more heat and dryness than not throughout the season, which has been unfavorable for corn and sunflowers.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEEDS MORE RAIN WHILE WEST STAYS WET

A front produced some decent rainfall in northeastern Australia earlier this week, which will help to reverse a recent dry trend. Western Australia has seen crop conditions improving with frequent rainfall as wheat and canola are getting into reproductive stages. Southeastern areas are still drier and are in need of more rain as those crops get into reproductive stages. Yet another strong front will move through Western Australia this weekend with more limited showers for the east next week.

RAINFALL CONTINUES IN CENTRAL CHINA THROUGH WEEKEND

A stalled front has been producing showers in central China this week, which continues through the weekend. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be helpful. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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