Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

Harvest is ramping up, but producers in the Canadian Prairies have had to dodge showers that have delayed those plans. The week ahead offers a nice stretch of dry weather but contains some caveats as well.

Provincial reports from Saskatchewan and Manitoba note that combines have been slow to enter fields during the last week. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms have moved through the region during the last couple of weeks, tainting the end of the season. Producers are concerned about quality and damage from some stronger storms, too. Both provinces show that harvest is behind schedule and could use a run of dry weather to help get equipment out into the fields.

Mother Nature is going to be of some assistance, but it will not be perfect. A strong storm system that moved through this week is still producing some showers over northeastern areas on Aug. 22. And a couple of isolated showers may be possible in Manitoba on Aug. 23, as well. But outside of those small areas, the weather is certainly drying out. Humidity has already come down and winds are picking up as the system brings in much cooler air from the northwest. That will help to keep the region dry through almost all of next week. Models do not bring in another significant chance for rain until next weekend, offering up a seven- to eight-day window for fields to dry out and combines to roll.

However, the drier weather is coming with a burst of colder air. Temperatures are plunging and there is a non-zero risk of frost in the eastern half of the region on the mornings of Aug. 24-25. Models do not produce low temperatures below 5 degrees Celsius (40 degrees Fahrenheit), but this is the type of pattern that models typically do not account for well enough. Clear skies and calm winds with an abnormally cold air mass should cause rapid cooling of the surface.

Frosts are still unlikely, but it is hard to accomplish this in August and it cannot be ruled out in a couple of spots. Temperatures below 5 degrees C were recorded earlier this week in Saskatchewan in an airmass that wasn't nearly as cold as the one spreading through the region this weekend.

For those with crops still developing, the frosts would end their season if they occur. Even if they do not, low temperatures do not allow much drying of crops or soil, so drying would be slower to occur. Producers may have to wait an extra day or two before temperatures rise next week to more seasonable levels.

Conditions will be good for about a week, but the month of September appears to be chaotic. After the next system moves in to close out the month, forecast models suggest big, fall-like weather systems to begin moving through the region. For those that are not able to combine by the end of next week, September may be tough in which to do so.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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