Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong cold front producing a burst of cooler temperatures for the weekend and next week in the U.S., and showers across Europe and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

COLDER, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

A front missed some key areas in the southern and eastern Midwest as it moved through this week. Areas from Missouri to Ohio are still on the dry side. Another front will move through Friday into the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a significant drop in temperature going into next week that will feel like fall and reduce stress for some areas that are drier. These dry areas need rain though to finish up, and this run of dryness is not good for that prospect.

STRONG FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, STALLING

A front will move through the Central and Southern Plains Friday through the weekend, stalling across the south where rain may be heavy going into next week. A significant drop in temperature will follow behind that front, which will make it feel like fall. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region due to regular rainfall.

COLD AIR MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS

A strong front will move through the Northern Plains on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall. Recent rainfall has been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the spring wheat harvest. Some drier conditions in the forecast may help with that.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers continue in the Delta, especially across the south. Though a front is stalling in the region through the weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been expanding and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton. Harvest has started for corn and soybeans though, which will only increase going into September.

DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES, SLIGHT RISK OF FROST

A system continues to move across the eastern Canadian Prairies through Friday, bringing some rainfall and being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures behind the front will take a dive, especially across the east through Monday. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur. Largely dry weather follows for next week, which would be beneficial for maturing and harvest of crops.

ANOTHER FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN BRAZIL

In Brazil, spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. A front brought widespread and needed rainfall across the south over the last couple of days, though it also brought some severe winds. Another front is forecast to produce more rain across the south this weekend. Some frosts may occur behind the second front, which would be concerning for advancing wheat.

SYSTEM SPINNING ACROSS EUROPE

A system continues to spin through Europe for the remainder of this week with widespread showers from Italy to Romania. Temperatures are falling behind the system as well, reducing stress. Another system may do something similar next week. And we may see yet another move through late next week and weekend. The rainfall is good for filling corn where it occurs, though there are some drier spots across the north that could use some rain.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION STILL STAYING DRY

A system moving through Europe may bring more widespread showers to western areas of the Black Sea region on Thursday and Friday, but those are forecast to become isolated farther east this weekend. Eastern areas have endured more heat and dryness than not throughout the season, which continues to be unfavorable for corn and sunflowers.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEEDS MORE RAIN WHILE WEST STAYS WET

A front produced some decent rainfall in northeastern Australia earlier this week, which will help to reverse a recent dry trend. Another front moved through Western Australia with another round of good rainfall for an area that has seen crop conditions improving as they start heading. That front will struggle to produce rain for eastern over the next couple of days, areas which have started to get drier again and could use some more rain as heading starts to come. Yet another strong front will move through Western Australia this weekend with more limited showers for the east next week.

IMPROVED RAINFALL IN CENTRAL CHINA

A stalled front has been producing showers in central China this week, which continues through the weekend. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be helpful. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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