Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong cold front producing a burst of cooler temperatures for the weekend and next week in the U.S., and showers across Europe and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

A front brought scattered showers as it passed through the Midwest this week, but missed some key areas in southern Illinois as well as some parts of Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio that have been drier over the last few weeks. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week that will feel like fall and reduce stress for some areas that are drier. These dry areas need rain though to finish up, but this run of dryness is not good for that prospect.

ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front will continue to drop through the Southern Plains over the next couple of days with scattered showers. Another front will move through late this week and weekend, stalling across the south where rain may be heavy going into next week. A significant drop in temperature will follow behind that front that will make it feel like fall. Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region due to regular rainfall.

COLD AIR MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK

A strong front will move through the Northern Plains on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall. Recent rainfall has been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the spring wheat harvest. Some drier conditions in the forecast may help with that.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers continue in the Delta region, especially across the south. Though a front is moving into the region Wednesday and another will move in and stall this weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been popping up and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, SLIGHT RISK OF FROST

A system will move across the Canadian Prairies through Friday, bringing some rainfall and being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures behind the front will take a dive, especially across the east through the weekend. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur. Largely dry weather follows for next week, which would be beneficial for maturing and harvest of crops.

ANOTHER FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN BRAZIL

In Brazil, spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. A front brought widespread and needed rainfall across the south over the last couple of days. Another front is forecast to do the same this weekend. Some frosts may occur behind the second front, which would be concerning for advancing wheat.

SYSTEM SPINNING ACROSS EUROPE

A system moved into France on Tuesday and will go spinning through Europe for the remainder of this week with widespread showers from France to Romania. Temperatures will fall behind the system as well, reducing stress. Another system may do something similar next week.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION STILL STAYING DRY

It continues to be very dry for much of the Black Sea region. A system moving through Europe may bring more widespread showers to western areas Thursday and Friday, but those are forecast to become isolated farther east this weekend. Eastern areas have endured more heat and dryness than not throughout the season, which continues to be unfavorable for corn and sunflowers.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEEDS MORE RAIN WHILE WEST STAYS WET

A front lingering in northeastern Australia is producing some beneficial showers on Wednesday, which will help to reverse a recent dry trend. Another front will move is moving through Western Australia with another round of good rainfall for an area that has seen crop conditions improving as they start heading. That front will struggle to produce rain for eastern areas later this week which have started to get drier again and could use some more rain as heading starts to come over the next couple of weeks. Yet another strong front will move through Western Australia this weekend with more limited showers for the east next week.

IMPROVED RAINFALL IN CENTRAL CHINA

A stalled front continues to bring some good rainfall to central China through the weekend. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be very helpful. Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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