DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of North America with a small trough in the Northeast that is deflecting Hurricane Erin away from the U.S. and out to sea.

There is a trough in the Gulf of Alaska that is sending a large piece of energy over the top of the ridge over the next couple of days, which will deepen over the Great Lakes this weekend and only slowly move eastward next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will probably be reinforced later next week. The leftover ridge will get pushed into the West this weekend and largely stay there through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The tail end of a cold front will stall across the Southern Plains through the Southeast this weekend, producing scattered showers in these areas next week. A low-pressure system may form in the Plains late next week and push into the Midwest with showers, but that is uncertain and unlikely to bring much precipitation through the end of the month. Behind this front, a shot of fall-like air will settle in through much of next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...116 AT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPCOK, AZ

LOW TUE...24 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...SOUTH BEND, IN 1.93 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of North America with a small trough in the Northeast that is deflecting Hurricane Erin away from the U.S. and out to sea.

There is a trough in the Gulf of Alaska that is sending a large piece of energy over the top of the ridge over the next couple of days, which will deepen over the Great Lakes this weekend and only slowly move eastward next week and probably be reinforced later next week. The leftover ridge will get pushed into the West this weekend and largely stay there through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The tail end of a cold front will stall across the Southern Plains through the Southeast this weekend, producing scattered showers in these areas next week. A low-pressure system may form in the Plains late next week and push into the Midwest with showers, but that is uncertain and unlikely to bring much precipitation through the end of the month. Behind this front, a shot of fall-like air will settle in through much of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong front will move through on Thursday, but with more limited rainfall. More noticeably, the front will bring through a burst of much cooler air, especially for the Dakotas that will make it feel like fall. Recent rainfall has been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but not for the spring wheat harvest. Some drier conditions in the forecast may help with that.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue to drop through the region over the next couple of days with scattered showers.

Another front will move through late this week and weekend, stalling across the south where rain may be heavy going into next week. A significant drop in temperature will follow behind that front that will make it feel like fall.

Conditions are still largely favorable for most areas in the region due to regular rainfall.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought scattered showers as it passed through the region this week, but missed some key areas in southern Illinois as well as some parts of Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio that have been drier over the last few weeks. Another front will move through Friday through the weekend. That front may not bring much rainfall, but should bring a more significant drop in temperature going into next week that will feel like fall and reduce stress for some areas that are drier. These dry areas need rain though to finish up, but this run of dryness is not good for that prospect.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue in the region, especially across the south. Though a front is moving into the region Wednesday and another will move in and stall this weekend, showers are forecast to remain isolated. Dry spots have been popping up and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed though, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as filling cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system will move across the region through Friday, bringing some rainfall and being an annoyance for maturing crops and harvest. Temperatures behind the front will take a dive, especially across the east through the weekend. Frosts are not in the forecast, but could be close, which would put an end to the season if they occur. Largely dry weather follows for next week, which would be beneficial for maturing and harvest of crops.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. A front brought widespread and needed rainfall across the south over the last couple of days. Another front is forecast to do the same this weekend. Some frosts may occur behind the second front, which would be concerning for advancing wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through the country with widespread rainfall on Tuesday. Heavy rain in some areas helped to refill soils. Behind the system, cooler temperatures have returned. Some frost will be possible across the south, but damage to vegetative wheat is not expected. Another front will move through later this week. Rainfall will be more limited, but the drop in temperature will be more significant, with frosts looking likely across most areas of the country. Wheat may be starting to head in the north, which could see damage should frosts develop this weekend. But cooler temperatures will slow growth regardless.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved into France on Tuesday and will go spinning through the continent for the remainder of this week with widespread showers from France to Romania. Temperatures will fall behind the system as well, reducing stress. Another system may do something similar next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be very dry for much of the region. A system moving through Europe may bring more widespread showers to western areas Thursday and Friday, but those are forecast to become isolated farther east this weekend. Eastern areas have endured more heat and dryness than not throughout the season, which continues to be unfavorable for corn and sunflowers.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front lingering in the northeast is producing some beneficial showers on Wednesday, which will help to reverse a recent dry trend. Another front will move is moving through Western Australia with another round of good rainfall for an area that has seen crop conditions improving as they start heading. That front will struggle to produce rain for eastern areas later this week which have started to get drier again and could use some more rain as heading starts to come over the next couple of weeks. Yet another strong front will move through Western Australia this weekend with more limited showers for the east next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front continues to bring some good rainfall to central China through the weekend. Central areas have had issues with heat and dryness throughout the season and this rainfall will be very helpful.

Northeastern corn and soybean areas continue to have much more favorable weather conditions.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, falling Saturday, below normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday, falling Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers far south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers far south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, falling Saturday, near normal north and well below normal south Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.