Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

With crop reports from both Manitoba and Saskatchewan suggesting that the fall harvest has started in those two provinces this week, the weather forecast is more tilted toward finding drier and warmer conditions for good harvest progress. Rainfall from here on out will be more detrimental to that progress and could cause quality concerns for mature crops sitting in the fields.

However, some rainfall would still be useful to reduce drought, perhaps getting one last haying in there and increasing dry matter for forages before the frosts start setting in. At the end of June, significant drought had expanded across northern and eastern sections of the region, which has continued to invigorate the wildfires. But rainfall during the last 10 days or so has helped to ease those drought conditions and fight the fires. The smoke has not been as noticeable this week. Much of the region has seen more than 35 millimeters (about 1.40 inches) during the last two weeks.

Regardless of that, the weather pattern continues to be an active one. An upper-level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will continually push pieces of energy over the Canadian Rockies and through the Prairies. The result will be widely scattered showers and some thunderstorms in a few waves this weekend and through next week. Total rainfall amounts do not look to be all that heavy, though localized heavy rain can occur in thunderstorms. But the rainfall looks to be a nuisance to fieldwork and could cause quality issues for the crop that is left out in the field.

The weather was chilly Friday morning, as some areas across Saskatchewan saw lows dip into the lower single digits Celsius (upper 30s Fahrenheit). Frosts probably did not occur, but it goes to show that those conditions are right around the corner. Another cold front that pushes through late next week could bring those frosty conditions to the region and end the season all together.

The season could probably be cut in half with areas south of a Red Deer, Alberta, to Brandon, Manitoba, line having overall good conditions this season, with some exceptions, while north and east of this line conditions were much more harsh, with some exceptions. As the harvest continues to progress going into the early parts of September, the DTN forecast suggests above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall. Those conditions would be much more conducive to harvest.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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