Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat building ahead of a cold front that will move through the U.S., areas of dryness in the Black Sea region and central China, and increased rainfall in parts of the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEAT BUILDING AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT IN THE MIDWEST

Temperatures are rising across the Midwest going into the weekend and could be stressful for some areas that have been a bit too dry in the east. Another front is moving into northern areas and will stall through the weekend before moving southeastward next week. Some areas of flooding around Minnesota and Wisconsin are going to be possible as well as severe weather. Temperatures will fall behind the front. Other areas should get chances for at least moderate rainfall, helping with filling corn and soybeans where they hit. However, some areas are likely to get missed and could compound some of the dryness that has occurred in the east.

GETTING WARMER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Sporadic showers may develop across the central and Southern Plains over the next few days before a front moves into northern areas on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be hot and stressful to some areas that are still on the drier side. The front will push through next week, bringing showers and a relief in temperature.

FRONT STALLED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A front stalling in the Northern Plains will bring sporadic showers through the weekend. The front should completely move out early next week. Another front should move through late next week with more showers. The rain is favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but could continue to negatively impact wheat quality and harvest. Severe weather is also possible with the fronts.

DRYNESS EXPANDING IN DELTA AMONGST ISOLATED SHOWERS

Isolated showers continue in the Delta into next week, especially across the south. Dry spots are popping up in the region and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. Many areas are getting missed, which could hurt the latter stages of corn and soybean fill, as well as cotton.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK

Areas of heavy rain over the last ten days have been favorable for later-developing crops in the Canadian Prairies, but have been a negative factor for maturing and early harvest in other areas. Those across the north and east have seen beneficial rainfall to reduce drought and could make for another cutting of hay as we see more rainfall chances through this weekend and next week. That could set back harvest and quality some more, but it should also help to battle the wildfires across the north.

DRIER IN BRAZIL, RAIN NEXT WEEK

Recent frost across southern Brazil may have had some impact on early-developing wheat in a few spots, but overall should not have been all that damaging. Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. It will be drier through the weekend, but we could see another front move in next week with showers across the south.

HOT AND DRY IN EUROPE, SYSTEM NEXT WEEK

Hotter and drier conditions continue in most of Europe through the weekend, though a front moving through may produce some limited showers in a few lucky areas in the east over the next couple of days. The hot and dry conditions are putting stress on filling corn, but is favorable for the remaining wheat harvest. A more widespread rain event and drop in temperature is forecast for next week with a system rolling through most of the continent.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

It continues to be very dry for much of the Black Sea region. A weak system could bring limited showers through this weekend into next week, but coverage is forecast to be awfully low. More reports of drought stress continue to pop up on social media as harvest continues for wheat and corn continues to fill. Good weather has come in short bursts this season, with stress due to heat and dryness more common than not.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA SEEING MORE RAIN, EASTERN AREAS NEED MORE

Western Australia has seen a good trend of increasing rainfall over the last few weeks while fronts have been struggling to produce rain in the east. That appears to be true with a couple of fronts next week and weekend as well. Though wheat conditions are improving in the west, they've been more stagnant and fairer in the east. Wheat and canola in the southeast should start to get into their reproductive stages soon and could use some more rain in which to do so.

CENTRAL CHINA GETTING LIMITED SHOWERS

A front will continue with showers in portions of central China for the next few days and another disturbance is forecast for the weekend with some more favorable rain chances for filling corn and soybeans. Central China has endured more instances of heat and dryness than other areas of the country and could really use the rain. Areas in the northeast have had more consistent rainfall and variable temperatures, with largely favorable weather for corn and soybeans there.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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