Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Overall good weather in the Corn Belt, areas of dryness in the Black Sea region and central China, and increased rainfall in parts of the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH MIDWEST

A slow-moving front has been working through the Midwest this weekend, bringing some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. Flooding has been an issue in several areas from northern Missouri into southern Wisconsin. The responsible front will continue to slowly push east this week, bringing more rain eastward to some drier areas. Another front will move into northwestern areas later this week and stall a couple of days before moving eastward next week. Most areas should get chances for at least moderate rainfall over the next week to 10 days, helping with filling corn and soybeans. However, areas of flooding could cause issues as well.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front brought scattered showers and areas of heavy rain and severe weather to the Central Plains over the weekend. Significant wind damage was recorded in Nebraska and Kansas. The front continues to slowly progress through the Southern Plains Monday and Tuesday as well. Sporadic showers may develop throughout the rest of the week before the next front moves in this weekend. Temperatures will be rising ahead of this front and could be stressful to some areas that are still on the drier side.

ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK

Additional rain fell near the Canadian border over the weekend and more will fall across these areas on Monday as well. An additional front will move into the Northern Plains midweek and bring sporadic showers into the weekend as it stalls. The rain is favorable for filling corn and soybeans but could impact wheat quality and harvest.

FRONT SETTLING INTO THE DELTA

Some isolated showers fell across the Delta this weekend, but most areas were dry. Showers will increase this week as a front slowly sags through the region and largely stalls, continuing showers into next week. With the region continuing to edge toward harvest, rainfall will become less and less important for building yield and more of a hindrance to harvest. The tropics are also starting to become more alive and will need to be watched, though no immediate impacts are forecast for at least the next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES YET AGAIN THIS WEEK

Areas of heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies over the last week have been favorable for later-developing crops, but has been a negative factor for maturing and early harvest in other areas. Those across the north and east have seen beneficial rainfall to reduce drought and could make for another cutting of hay as we see more rainfall chances coming through this week and weekend in three separate waves of showers. It should also help to battle the wildfires across the north.

DRIER IN BRAZIL

It was drier but colder in Brazil this weekend as some areas of frost were noted across the south. That may have had some impact on early-developing wheat in a few spots, but overall should not have been all that damaging. Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. It will be drier for the next week, but we could see another front move in next week with showers across the south.

HOT AND DRY IN EUROPE

It was largely dry in Europe over the weekend with some spotty showers in the northeast. Though a couple of fronts will move through this week, showers will be very limited. Temperatures are forecast to be warmer this week as well, which will put stress on filling corn, but be favorable for the remaining wheat harvest.

BLACK SEA REGION CONTINUES TO ONLY SEE LIMITED SHOWERS

It was hotter and drier in the Black Sea region over the weekend, favoring wheat harvest. But that continues to be concerning for filling corn. A front will move through on Monday with limited showers and another could do the same this weekend, but finding good weather has been tough for corn and sunflowers this year.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA SEEING MORE RAIN

A front moved through Western Australia with showers over the weekend, favorable for building soil moisture there. The front will lose its strength moving through eastern areas early this week though. Another front will do something similar later this week. Though wheat conditions are improving in the west, they've been more stagnant and fairer in the east. Wheat and canola in the southeast should get into their reproductive stages later this month and could use some more rain in which to do so.

CENTRAL CHINA GETTING LIMITED SHOWERS

A front brought needed rainfall to the North China Plain this weekend, which has endured bouts of hot and dry conditions throughout the season. The front responsible will continue showers in portions of central China for the rest of the week. Another disturbance is forecast for late week with some more favorable rain chances for filling corn and soybeans. Areas in the northeast have had more consistent rainfall and variable temperatures, with largely favorable weather for corn and soybeans there.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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