Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

The Canadian Prairies have been battling dryness through the growing season, especially across eastern and northern areas. Forty-one percent of topsoil moisture across Saskatchewan is rated short to very short, according to a recent crop report released by the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture on Aug. 6. In the same report, it also stated that crop development has been rapid due to limited moisture that has resulted in a higher percentage of crops being ahead of normal stages. You may view the full crop report here: https://www.saskatchewan.ca/….

Late this week into the upcoming weekend, there's a different look to the weather pattern though as a large low-pressure system moves into the northern Canadian Prairies. As of Friday morning, some areas near Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, have reported 7-19 millimeters (0.3-0.75 inches) of rainfall during the past 24 hours as the system started drifting north late Thursday into early Friday with heavy downpours in areas. Scattered rain showers are expected to continue throughout the remainder of the day across central Saskatchewan while also spreading through western Manitoba.

On Saturday, the low-pressure system and rain will drift even farther north and east. A band of heavy rain could set up across east-central Saskatchewan into central Manitoba where 20-50 mm (0.8-2.0 inches) are forecast. Directly behind this system, another storm system will dig into northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba Sunday into Monday. Rain showers may be more isolated with this system in the northern Canadian Prairies, as the heavier rain favors northern Saskatchewan where 20-40 mm (0.8-1.6 inches) of rain are forecast.

While the weather pattern is much wetter this weekend than what the northern Prairies have been seeing lately, the dry conditions throughout much of the growing season have pushed harvest to start earlier as well. As of Aug. 4, 13% of winter wheat has been combined throughout Saskatchewan according to the Ministry of Agriculture report. The rainfall during the weekend will likely be too late to provide many benefits for mature crops or crops being harvested already. At that point, the biggest benefit of the rainfall will be building soil moisture.

For late-planted crops, like spring wheat, the rain may be more beneficial as wheat is filling. The weather pattern throughout next week looks favorable in this case. A system from Alaska will shift southeast during the middle of next week, reaching the Canadian Prairies Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance does show some disagreement on the exact coverage of rain showers with this system, but it appears that there is at least a moderate risk for rainfall totals approaching 20-40 mm (0.8-1.6 inches) in some spots of central Saskatchewan and southern Alberta.

As harvest ramps up on early planted crops, the active pattern through next week could provide some slowdowns. However, for crops that are still filling before they mature, the rain could help boost the yields. Regardless, at least the rain should help build topsoil moisture that has been depleted as well as tame some of the wildfires in the forested regions of northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

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Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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