DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A trough is in the Southeast U.S., allowing rainfall to continue across the Carolinas and Georgia. Across the Southern Plains and Four Corners region, a ridge is lending to drier conditions. In western Canada, a closed low will dig south into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains late this week. By the late weekend, the closed low will move into the western Midwest and scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the region. Ridging will take over the East.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar through early next week with slight differences on the evolution of the midweek trough in the Central U.S. next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Early next week, a trough will slowly move through the Central U.S. with ridging in the Southwest and East. The ridges in the Southwest and East will keep temperatures above average in these areas with near to slightly below-average temperatures in the Plains. During the second half of next week, a trough will move into the Ohio Valley with a ridge redeveloping in the Plains.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...117 AT 4 MILES NORTWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ AND 2 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF CIBOLA, AZ AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELOY, AZ

LOW TUE...29 AT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAND LAKE, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...CHARLOTTE, NC 2.57 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is in the Southeast U.S., allowing rainfall to continue across the Carolinas and Georgia. Across the Southern Plains and Four Corners region, a ridge is lending to drier conditions. In western Canada, a closed low will dig south into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains late this week. By the late weekend, the closed low will move into the western Midwest and scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the region. Ridging will take over the East.

The U.S. and European models are similar through early next week with slight differences on the evolution of the mid-week trough in the Central U.S. next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Early next week, a trough will slowly move through the Central U.S. with ridging in the Southwest and East. The ridges in the Southwest and East will keep temperatures above average in these areas with near to slightly below-average temperatures in the Plains. During the second half of next week, a trough will move into the Ohio Valley with a ridge redeveloping in the Plains.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture continues to build across the region with multiple rounds of rain moving through earlier this week. Corn and soybeans are benefiting from the consistent rainfall but it is slowing down winter wheat harvest and potentially degrading maturing spring wheat. Late this week into early next week will remain active with scattered showers and storms moving through. Temperatures will drop below average late this week behind a cold front and remain on the cooler side going into next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): High pressure is keeping conditions on the drier side across the Southern Plains while the Central Plains saw spotty showers earlier this week. As fronts continue to move through the Northern Plains, some precipitation may drift into the Central Plains, but it will be spotty. Recent rainfall has kept conditions mostly favorable for corn and soybeans, but western areas could use more rain.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers early this week were spotty but more widespread showers will tag western areas on Wednesday.

Temperatures will also trend warmer through the second half of this week. By this weekend, a stronger front will push into the region providing scattered showers and a slight cool down with temperatures closer to average in the west.

The east will remain relatively dry until early next week when the cold front pushes through. Soil moisture remains in good shape for most areas as corn and soybeans advance through their reproductive stages.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Conditions have been relatively dry in the Northern Delta while a stalled front has led to showers along the Gulf Coast. Drier conditions in the north have helped maturing crops. Through this weekend, rainfall will remain confined to Gulf Coast before a cold front could provide showers farther north next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Temperatures have cooled off some this week but showers have been limited. Drier conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest. A late-week system will provide scattered showers to northern areas of the region, but most of the main growing areas will only see isolated showers at best. Through the upcoming weekend and early next week, warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions will return. Filling spring wheat may receive more stress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered rain showers have been impacting the Southern Prairies earlier this week but it's coming too late for the maturing crops in the area. By this weekend, scattered showers are forecast to spread into the Northern Prairies and the rain will again be too late for damaged crops. As the rain spreads north, it could help suppress some wildfires in forested regions.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front lingered across southern areas through Monday. There will be a brief break in the rainfall in this area before another front pushes through Thursday and Friday. The rain will likely disrupt what's left of the corn harvest but be beneficial to winter wheat that will start heading. By the upcoming weekend and early next week, a drier stretch could develop. Cooler temperatures will also build across the southern and central areas later this week, with a slight risk for some spotty frost in southern Brazil.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Central areas are expected to be on the drier side for much of the week and possibly into mid-August as the storm track shifts into northern Argentina and southern Brazil. As vegetative wheat starts to head, additional soil moisture is still needed for the developing crop. Low temperatures could dip near freezing late this week, leading to areas of frost.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through eastern areas earlier this week. Late this week into the upcoming weekend, spotty showers will favor northern areas with the south remaining dry. Through mid-August, showers will be limited outside of northern and eastern areas. Summer crops may need more soil moisture but the drier conditions are favorable for harvest.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions across the east especially have been stressful for pollinating to filling corn. Showers on Monday favored eastern Ukraine and southwest Russia and another front will move through mid-week, with most of the rain forecast to fall across Ukraine as the front weakens across southwest Russia. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for much of the region and showers will be limited the rest of this week in southwest Russia with rain favoring Ukraine.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Late this week, a front will come crashing into Western Australia with scattered showers in the east as well. Scattered showers will continue to build soil moisture and reduce the risk of drought.

Strong fronts will continue to move through Western Australia into mid-August with isolated showers favoring the East Coast. Vegetative winter wheat and canola are benefiting from the consistent rainfall.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than other areas of the country this season. A couple of stronger fronts could produce moderate to heavy rain through the weekend in the North China Plain, favorable for corn and soybeans before rainfall looks more isolated during the first half of next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

East: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, below normal Friday, below to well below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal north and below to well below normal south Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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