Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Warmer temperatures and more rainfall in the Corn Belt, scattered showers in southern Brazil, and daily showers in the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets on Tuesday.

TEMPERATURES START TRENDING WARMER IN THE MIDWEST

Temperatures were milder this past weekend while Canadian wildfire smoke degraded air quality. A front from Canada could provide spotty showers to northern areas during the mid-week while temperatures climb above average. By late this week and the weekend, a stronger front will push through the region providing scattered showers and temperatures will once again cool off. Soil moisture remains in good shape for most areas as corn and soybeans advance through their reproductive stages.

STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

After cooler temperatures this past weekend and a few pockets of thunderstorms in western areas, temperatures will start to rise above average later this week into the weekend. Fronts moving by to the north of the region will provide a few shots of rain, mainly across Nebraska. Rain showers will be much more limited in the Southern Plains this week. Given the recent and steady rainfall, conditions for corn and soybeans are mostly favorable.

NORTHERN PLAINS DODGE SHOWERS AS WHEAT HARVEST CONTINUES

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the area this past weekend and will continue to move through the region on a daily basis this week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which is maturing. Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

SOUTHERN DELTA WILL SEE WET CONDITIONS THIS WEEK

A stalled front along the Gulf coast provided areas of heavy rain to the region this past weekend. Most of the rainfall this week will remain confined to coastal areas with the stalled front still in the area. Drier conditions in the north have helped maturing crops but if conditions remain too dry, this could cause extra stress and declining crop conditions.

RAIN EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A system moved through late this weekend, providing isolated showers to the region. Although, temperatures have been hot recently, causing stress to filling spring wheat. The hotter and drier conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest. While temperatures will briefly cool off this week in the region, falling a few degrees below average, the cooler stretch won't last long. By the upcoming weekend, temperatures are expected to start trending above average again. Any rainfall through the rest of the week will mainly favor northern areas of the region.

RAINY PATTERN IN THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers expanded eastward from Alberta this past weekend, but the rain likely wasn't beneficial enough for mature crops in the south and damaged crops in the north. This week, the bulk of the rainfall will favor southern areas. It won't be until the upcoming weekend that rainfall could trend north. Any rainfall in the north is likely going to be too late to benefit crops. Although, the rain could help suppress wildfires.

FRONTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front lingered across southern areas through Monday. There will be a brief break in the rainfall in this area before another front pushes through late this week. The rain will likely disrupt what's left of the corn harvest but be beneficial to winter wheat that will start heading. By the upcoming weekend and early next week, a drier stretch could develop.

RAIN FAVORING THE WESTERN BLACK SEA

Hotter and drier conditions across the east especially have been stressful for pollinating to filling corn. Showers on Monday favored eastern Ukraine and southwest Russia, and another front will move through mid-week, with most of the rain forecast to fall across Ukraine as the front weakens across southwest Russia. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for much of the region and showers will be limited the rest of this week in southwest Russia with rain favoring Ukraine.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CANOLA AND WINTER WHEAT IN AUSTRALIA

Showers favored eastern areas this past weekend while a front moved into western areas. The front in the west will likely only produce very limited showers in the east early this week. By late next week, another front will move into the west with a system providing scattered showers in east-central areas. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO CENTRAL CHINA THIS WEEK

Central China and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than other areas of the country this season. A few fronts will be moving through these areas this week, increasing some moisture in the region. But if it disappoints, the region will continue to be drier. Meanwhile, conditions in northeast China's corn and soybean areas have been and continue to be favorable.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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