DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

One trough extends into the Pacific Northwest with another trough in the south-central U.S. A ridge is in the Four Corners area and it will strengthen this week and expand into the Southern Plains, keeping conditions on the drier side. Another ridge from central Canada will push into eastern Canada. Between the Southwest ridge and the eastern Canadian ridge, a trough will get sandwiched in between them in the Southeast U.S., providing daily chances for rain.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Late this week and this weekend, a system from the Pacific Northwest will move into the Corn Belt and provide a cool down and scattered showers.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

By next week, a ridge will build back into the Southeast U.S. while a trough will move through the Corn Belt again. Temperatures will briefly trend warmer for the Central U.S. through the middle of this week before the Corn Belt trends closer to average this weekend with an incoming cold front. Near-average temperatures could linger in the Corn Belt for a short period before trending warmer in mid-August.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...115 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA AND 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA LOW SUN...25 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...ASHEVILLE, NC 1.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

One trough extends into the Pacific Northwest with another trough in the south-central U.S. A ridge is in the Four Corners area and it will strengthen this week and expand into the Southern Plains, keeping conditions on the drier side. Another ridge from central Canada will push into eastern Canada. Between the Southwest ridge and the eastern Canadian ridge, a trough will get sandwiched in between them in the Southeast U.S., providing daily chances for rain. Late this week and this weekend, a system from the Pacific Northwest will move into the Corn Belt and provide a cool down and scattered showers.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

By next week, a ridge will build back into the Southeast U.S. while a trough will move through the Corn Belt again. Temperatures will briefly trend warmer for the Central U.S. through the middle of this week before the Corn Belt trends closer to average this weekend with an incoming cold front. Near-average temperatures could linger in the Corn Belt for a short period before trending warmer in mid-August.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the area this past weekend and will continue to move through the region on a daily basis this week, though organized severe weather is less likely. Showers will be scattered and not widespread, but soil moisture will continue to build, favorable for corn and soybeans, but not for wheat, which will be maturing. Some areas of heavy rain could degrade quality.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): After cooler temperatures this past weekend and a few pockets of thunderstorms in western areas, temperatures will start to rise above average later this week into the weekend.

Fronts moving by to the north of the region will provide a few shots of rain, mainly across Nebraska. Rain showers will be much more limited in the Southern Plains this week. Given the recent and steady rainfall, conditions for corn and soybeans are mostly favorable.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures were milder this past weekend while Canadian wildfire smoke degraded air quality. A front from Canada could provide spotty showers to northern areas during the midweek while temperatures climb above average. By late this week and the weekend, a stronger front will push through the region providing scattered showers and temperatures will once again cool off. Soil moisture still remains in good shape for most areas as corn and soybeans advance through their reproductive stages.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A stalled front along the Gulf coast provided areas of heavy rain to the region this past weekend. Most of the rainfall this week will remain confined to coastal areas with the stalled front still in the area. Drier conditions in the north have helped maturing crops but if conditions remain too dry, this could cause extra stress and declining crop conditions.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): A system moved through late this weekend, providing isolated showers to the region. Although, temperatures have been hot recently, causing stress to filling spring wheat. The hotter and drier conditions are favorable for winter wheat harvest. While temperatures will briefly cool off this week in the region, falling a few degrees below average, the cooler stretch won't last long. By the upcoming weekend, temperatures are expected to start trending above average again.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers expanded eastward from Alberta this past weekend, but the rain likely wasn't beneficial enough for mature crops in the south and damaged crops in the north. This week, the bulk of the rainfall will favor southern areas. It won't be until the upcoming weekend that rainfall could trend north. Any rainfall in the north is likely going to be too late to benefit crops; although, the rain could help suppress wildfires.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): This past weekend, a front moved through southern areas with lingering rain expected in the area through early this week. There will be a brief break in the rainfall in this area before another front pushes through late this week. The rain will likely disrupt what's left of the corn harvest but be beneficial to winter wheat that will start heading. By the upcoming weekend and early next week, a drier stretch could develop.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Rain showers this past weekend and early this week will remain confined to the northeast. Central areas are expected to be on the drier side for much of the week and possibly into mid-August as the storm track shifts into northern Argentina and southern Brazil. As vegetative wheat starts to head in early August, additional soil moisture is still needed for the developing crop.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Precipitation largely favored the central and east this past weekend. This week, the bulk of the fronts will be moving through northern areas. This will maintain or build soil moisture for summer crops but cause some delays to harvest or quality issues may arise in the remaining winter wheat.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions across the east especially have been stressful for pollinating to filling corn. A system lifting northward from the Black Sea may increase showers in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia on Monday, but would likely be scattered and not the steady rainfall that the region needs. Dryness and drought continue to be issues for much of the region and showers will be limited the rest of this week before a larger system may move through during the upcoming weekend.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Showers favored eastern areas this past weekend while a front moved into western areas. The front in the west will likely only produce very limited showers in the east early this week. By late next week, another front will move into the west with a system providing scattered showers in east-central areas. The recent increase in rainfall has been helpful for reducing drought and building soil moisture for vegetative winter wheat and canola that will be getting into their reproductive stages over the next few weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China, and the North China Plain in particular, has had more issues with heat and dryness than other areas of the country this season. A few fronts will be moving through these areas this week, increasing some moisture in the region. But if it disappoints, the region will continue to be drier. Meanwhile, conditions in northeast China's corn and soybean areas has been and continues to be favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Thursday, below normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers south Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at Teresa.Wells@dtn.com

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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