DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and a trough in central Canada. The trough is pushing a couple of disturbances through the northern U.S. for the next couple of days. Another ridge is developing in the Southeast and will spread west into the Southern Plains next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A trough will return to central Canada and the Northwest this weekend, sending energy through the northern half of the U.S., probably through the end of July, while the ridge stays generally stalled out but shifting more into the Plains.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A stalled front across the northern U.S. on the northern edge of the ridge will allow multiple disturbances to ride along it throughout the second half of next week and weekend, bringing what looks like daily chances for clusters of thunderstorms that may bring heavy rain and severe weather. Temperatures will be milder in the Northern Plains, but hot across the South and Midwest. We may see a system pushing through next weekend that could push that front more through the eastern half of the country the following week, bringing some relief to temperatures there while it gets hotter through more of the Plains.

We will also have to watch for another tropical system in the northern Gulf of America next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...114 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW THU...28 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...KANSAS CITY, MO 4.30 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska and a trough in central Canada. The trough is pushing a couple of disturbances through the northern U.S. for the next couple of days. Another ridge is developing in the Southeast and will spread west into the Southern Plains next week. A trough will return to central Canada and the Northwest this weekend, sending energy through the northern half of the U.S., probably through the end of July, while the ridge stays generally stalled out but shifting more into the Plains.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but have some notable differences. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A stalled front across the northern U.S. on the northern edge of the ridge will allow multiple disturbances to ride along it throughout the second half of next week and weekend, bringing what looks like daily chances for clusters of thunderstorms that may bring heavy rain and severe weather. Temperatures will be milder in the Northern Plains, but hot across the South and Midwest. We may see a system pushing through next weekend that could push that front more through the eastern half of the country the following week, bringing some relief to temperatures there while it gets hotter through more of the Plains.

We will also have to watch for another tropical system in the northern Gulf of America next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is moving through Friday and more are in the pipeline through next week, keeping the pattern busy with multiple rounds of thunderstorms that could bring heavy rain and severe weather. That may tend to miss some areas as well, but chances are widespread.

Temperatures are cooler to seasonable going into next week. Temperatures may rise later next week as the ridge starts to expand northward into the region at the end of July.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is stalled in the region and will produce showers through the weekend, though the coverage will be waning with time and favoring Nebraska. Temperatures have been seasonable, but will be rising this weekend into next week. That will lead to drier conditions across the south, but Nebraska may be close enough to get in on some of the busier pattern across the north. Drying conditions could become hazardous if they last too long.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Very few spots in the region are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get deeper into pollination. There are some areas that need rain though, and northern Indiana is the current location to watch the closest. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through next week. Some of those will come with heavy rain and severe weather, too. Temperatures are milder through the weekend, but should increase next week with a burst of heat stressing out any areas that have not received much rainfall. Overnight lows will be higher, not letting the crop cool off overnight. Otherwise, overall good weather conditions continue in most areas through the end of July.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue across the region through next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. However, a small disturbance moving through the Gulf of America is bringing some heavy rain into Louisiana on Friday and we may see something similar next week as well.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Hot and dry weather continues to increase drought conditions over much of the region. Though temperatures are not extremely hot, rainfall continues to be sparse to non-existent and drought will continue to deepen for the rest of the month. That may be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): While the weather pattern stays active with more systems through next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba while better conditions have been noted in much of Alberta and central Saskatchewan.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved through this week with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity were low. Another could do the same late next week or weekend. Overall, drier conditions have allowed the safrinha harvest to continue and conditions for winter wheat are overall favorable.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas this week, favorable for building soil moisture for winter wheat in some areas that had gotten dry in the central. Another front will move through later next week with more favorable rainfall in the forecast as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system continues over eastern Europe over the next day or two with favorable scattered rain. Those in the west have been much hotter and drier, which has been stressing the end of filling wheat and developing to reproductive corn. A system will bring more favorable rainfall to western countries this weekend into next week. Temperatures should also turn milder after being stressfully hot to close out July.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system is bringing scattered showers to western areas over the next few days, but leaving southwestern Russia with few chances, which have been much drier throughout the season. Hot and dry conditions there have been favorable for winter wheat dry down and harvest, but not for developing to reproductive corn and sunflowers, which has endured more dry conditions.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The precipitation forecast has increased with a system moving through Sunday into early next week and with another system moving through late next week. That could help with the drought problem for much of the country's winter wheat and canola outside of the west. Crops are still vegetative and the coming rain would be very helpful should it materialize before they get into their reproductive stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been few and far between on the North China Plain this season. A front may bring more concentrated showers there this weekend into early next week, which may bring some heavy rain and potential flooding. Meanwhile, the northeast continues to have mostly favorable weather for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near normal north and above normal south Saturday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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