DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Upper Midwest with troughs in the Northeast, Southwest, western Canada, and off the West Coast. All of these features will progress eastward throughout the weekend at varying speeds, but will keep an overall active pattern in place.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will try to re-establish itself back in the West next week, leaving an overall trough across the Central and East. With part of the ridge moving eastward through Canada late next week, this may contain the Central and Eastern trough through mid-July.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A leftover front will likely stall out near the Tennessee Valley for a few days next week. Another disturbance will move through northern areas early-mid next week with another following suit for late next week and weekend, all with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will generally be above normal in the West and East Coast, with milder temperatures between the Rockies and Appalachians.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...110 AT NEEDLES. CA, DEATH VALLEY, CA, AND TECOPA, CA

LOW WED...33 AT LEADVILLE, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...RICHMOND, VA 1.74 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Upper Midwest with troughs in the Northeast, Southwest, western Canada, and off the West Coast. All of these features will progress eastward throughout the weekend at varying speeds, but will keep an overall active pattern in place. The ridge will try to re-establish itself back in the West next week, leaving an overall trough across the Central and East.

With part of the ridge moving eastward through Canada late next week, this may contain the Central and Eastern trough through mid-July.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A leftover front will likely stall out near the Tennessee Valley for a few days next week. Another disturbance will move through northern areas early-mid next week with another following suit for late next week and weekend, all with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will generally be above normal in the West and East Coast, with milder temperatures between the Rockies and Appalachians.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move into the region on Thursday night and is likely to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Overall, active weather continues next week as well with multiple disturbances moving through. Though some drought exists and more rain is needed, precipitation is generally coming at a good pace for the region, with drought concerns likely to ebb and flow between which areas get hit and which get missed over the next few weeks.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Wetness is still an issue for winter wheat harvest in some areas, though the rainfall has been largely favorable for corn and soybean development. A front is stalled near the Red River, and showers continue there and south. Another system will move into the region on Friday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms likely into next week. Additional disturbances will follow it with more showers and storms likely as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Limited northern showers and increasing temperatures are expected for Thursday and Friday. Another system moves through over the weekend with a very slow-moving front likely to linger into next week across the south. Another system is likely to move through Tuesday through Thursday, and another disturbance probably moves through next weekend, keeping shower chances going through mid-July and the start of pollination. Overall, mostly favorable conditions continue in many areas, though there is a mixture of wetter and drier areas throughout the region.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): The tail end of a front may bring isolated showers into the region for the next several days. Another front is likely to slide into the region and stall early next week with more rainfall through next week, especially across the north. Many areas are still wet and in need of some drier weather, but that has been hard to come by. That could continue to have a negative effect on crop conditions.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Several systems and disturbances are forecast to move through the region through next week, but will only bring through scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms, causing many areas to be missed.

If that occurs across the south and east, it be a larger concern for developing to reproductive wheat and canola.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Some areas in southern Brazil have had a lot of rain over the last few weeks with fronts somewhat stalling or moving through at a frequent pace. Those fronts have also brought through some significantly cold air as well, producing areas of frost. Corn is mostly mature with harvest increasing and frost has likely not been much of a concern for winter wheat in the south either. But specialty crops will have taken on some damage from last week and early this week. Generally dry conditions are expected through next week, allowing some wet areas to recover.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Colder temperatures have been producing widespread frosts and freezes over the last two weeks. However, that has likely had little to no significant impact on the remaining corn and soybean harvests or winter wheat establishment. Temperatures will be rising over the weekend.

Though drier conditions will continue to promote harvest, rainfall is needed for winter wheat establishment. A front will move through Sunday and Monday with spotty showers, and another push will come mid-late next week, but forecast rainfall continues to be too light.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but are stressing some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system is moving through northern areas Thursday with some showers along its front. But a bigger system is forecast for this weekend into next week with more widespread showers, at least for northern areas. This system should also bring in more seasonable temperatures, at least for a few days. Though the rainfall will be welcomed, much more will be needed for spring-sewn crops and the pattern is favoring hotter and drier conditions to return later next week again.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Areas of isolated showers continued this week, mostly in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe are likely to produce more showers for western areas next week. With winter wheat maturing, drier conditions would be preferred for harvest, though corn and sunflower areas would enjoy more rainfall as soil moisture is still low in many areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. Several systems will move through the country over the next couple of weeks. Models have been increasing the forecast rainfall, and that will be critical as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in the next month or so.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): The pattern stays active in central China with periods of showers and thunderstorms through at least mid-July, helping to increase soil moisture and keep temperatures from becoming too extremely hot. That should improve conditions for developing corn and soybeans.

Overall favorable conditions are found elsewhere throughout the country.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near normal Monday.

East: Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north and south. Temperatures near to below normal south and above normal north.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below normal south and near to above normal north through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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