Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More widespread rain through the U.S. and Canadian Prairies, potential severe weather in mature Kansas wheat fields, and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEST

Key areas of the Midwest from southern Iowa and northern Missouri through northern Illinois have largely missed out on a very active weather pattern so far this season. However, multiple disturbances moving through the region this week and next should provide plenty of opportunity for rainfall. Though with these coming by way of clusters of thunderstorms, some areas are bound to be missed. Areas across the south could use a break as another week of wet weather bogs down fieldwork and remaining planting that is now late. There is potential for that this weekend into next week. A little burst of heat this weekend into early next week could help some areas dry out that miss out on the rainfall.

SEVERE WEATHER AROUND KANSAS TUESDAY

The recent run of active weather has continued to pour a bunch of water on top of much of the Central and Southern Plains, good for developing corn and soybeans as well as forages, but is hindering the wheat harvest. Multiple disturbances moving through this week and next will keep chances going, but should become more isolated and likely shift northward with time. A major severe weather event is expected in and around Kansas on Tuesday after affecting many areas in Nebraska on Monday. That could be a concern for damaging a mature wheat crop awaiting harvest in the area.

MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered thunderstorms produced some severe weather and areas of heavy rain over the weekend and Monday in the Northern Plains, including some of the driest areas of the region that needed some rain. Multiple impulses are forecast to move through the region through next week, a positive sign for those that need some rain and helping to maintain good soil moisture for those that do not.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE VERY WET

Dry weather continues to be hard to find as rain falls with systems and fronts stalling out in the Delta. That continues this week and probably next as well as moisture from the Gulf streams northward. Soils are well-stocked with moisture, but the overly wet conditions continue to bog down operations and remaining planting. Ponding is also a cause for concern from pests and diseases and causing uneven growth in a lot of the region.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES, BIG SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND

A couple of disturbances brought scattered showers and thunderstorms through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but favored the west while the east stayed drier. Northern areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are in need of some rain and they will have some opportunity this week. Multiple disturbances and fronts will pass through this week with scattered showers and a bigger system will be likely this weekend into early next week with more widespread rainfall. Anything would be a benefit with crop ratings dropping with recent dry weather, especially in the east.

WAVES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Southern areas of Brazil saw scattered showers over the weekend, which included southern safrinha corn areas. Those areas are maturing and do not need the rainfall, which is now becoming more of a hindrance for harvest. However, the rainfall is favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul for winter wheat establishment. A stalled front and couple of systems should continue to produce rainfall into next week, but more for the wheat areas than the corn, which would be favorable for both.

HOTTER AND DRIER IN EUROPE THIS WEEK

Scattered showers moved through some of western Europe over the weekend, including some drier areas in France, Germany and the UK. It is a bit late for winter wheat, but favorable for any spring-sown crops. Hotter and drier conditions this week into next week will be favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but stress some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Isolated to scattered showers moved back into the Black Sea region over the weekend, including the very dry areas in the south and east, but were mostly spotty and light. Those showers continue most of this week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain in some areas and will need much more. Colder temperatures will move through later this week and weekend and could help to reduce the stress.

A FEW SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Spotty showers have moved through Australia over the last week, but many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. More periods of limited showers will move through to close out the month of June, but favor the west over the driest areas in the south.

CENTRAL CHINA GETTING SOME NEEDED RAIN, WILL NEED MUCH MORE

Scattered showers went through China over the weekend, but favored the corn and soybean areas in the northeast over the winter wheat and canola areas on the North China Plain. With harvest underway and increasing throughout the month, drier weather is now preferred there, though double-cropped corn and soybeans will need more moisture in these areas. A system is forecast to bring widespread rainfall Wednesday and Thursday which would be beneficial for building some soil moisture while also keeping temperatures from getting too stressful.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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