DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

The trough in the East has lifted north into eastern Canada while the southeast ridge builds. A trough extends across the Southern Plains and will slowly advance east into the Mississippi Delta by Friday, providing areas of heavy rainfall. By the weekend, a ridge will attempt to strengthen across the West and the Great Plains. The ridge is not expected to remain dominant though and could eventually let a few disturbances pass through that could offer rain to the Corn Belt next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Next week, the pattern could remain active across the northern Corn Belt as systems from the West and southern Canada push east while ridging may become dominant across the South. Cooler temperatures will develop across the northwest Corn Belt into the Great Lakes late this week before a slight warm up returns early next week. The Plains could see temperatures hover closer to normal.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...118 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...32 AT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF CALPET, WY AND LEADVILLE, CO AND ANGEL FIRE, NM

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SAN ANGELO, TX 1.81 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

The trough in the East has lifted north into eastern Canada while the southeast ridge builds. A trough extends across the Southern Plains and will slowly advance east into the Mississippi Delta by Friday, providing areas of heavy rainfall. By the weekend, a ridge will attempt to strengthen across the West and the Great Plains. The ridge is not expected to remain dominant though and could eventually let a few disturbances pass through that could offer rain to the Corn Belt next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Next week, the pattern could remain active across the northern Corn Belt as systems from the West and southern Canada push east while ridging may become dominant across the South. Cooler temperatures will develop across the northwest Corn Belt into the Great Lakes late this week before a slight warm up returns early next week. The Plains could see temperatures hover closer to normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Through the weekend into early next week, multiple rounds of rain are expected to move through the region, keeping the pattern on the wetter side. Rainfall will help emerging spring wheat, but parts of Montana could use more rainfall to help improve wheat ratings. Recent rainfall in the Dakotas has been beneficial for range land and developing corn and soybeans.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain and flooding remain a threat in East Texas on Thursday with a large squall line moving through. Wheat harvest is off to a slow start in the Southern Plains with overly wet conditions. The Central Plains are still dealing with widespread drought from northern Kansas into Nebraska, and the developing corn, soybeans, and maturing wheat could use more rain but it's expected to remain spotty into the end of the week. A few systems could provide widespread showers to the Central Plains next week as a few thunderstorm complexes could provide swaths of heavy rain.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Southern areas saw a break in rainfall through the mid-week. Heavier rain could tag western areas through Friday before pushing east into the weekend. Overall, the pattern looks active next week as well, favorable for building soil moisture in western areas but unfavorable for those trying to get fieldwork done.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Wet conditions continue across the Delta through the weekend but more rain is not needed. The rainy pattern could continue into next week as well, which doesn't bode well for those trying to finish cotton planting or start wheat harvest.

While the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, the risk for any tropical systems entering the Gulf of America and impacting the Delta looks minimal into next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Multiple disturbances are expected to pass through the Prairies into next week, providing some areas of heavier rain at times. The more active weather pattern is favorable for early growth as well as reducing the risks for wildfires. Temperatures will fluctuate between above and below normal through next week as cold fronts provide brief shots of cooler air.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A drier stretch of weather across most of the main growing areas will linger into Friday before a larger system develops late this week into the weekend across southern areas. The potential for heavy rain this weekend threatens the harvest pace but wheat could use more rain for establishment. A parade of systems is possible across southern areas throughout next week as well before potentially trending drier by the end of the week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybean harvest will be disrupted across northeast areas for a few days as areas of heavy rain are possible Friday into Saturday with a large system swinging through. Although, newly-planted winter wheat could benefit from the rain. Next week's rain will again favor northeastern areas while the southwest remains largely dry with temperatures falling below average through the second half of the week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Spotty showers are tagging eastern Europe while southern areas remain mostly dry. Hot temperatures will develop through the end of the week across central areas which could cause some stress to developing corn in areas that have been recently dry. Through the weekend, scattered showers will tag central areas before high pressure returns for much of next week across the western half of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): The south and east could see more rainfall by Thursday and even into the weekend. Heavier and more consistent rain showers are needed to start making up some of the long-term deficits. Reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn will need more rain to get through the growing season, but the most consistent rain has been favoring western areas as a slow-moving system spins in western Russia through the weekend.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): High pressure will keep eastern areas on the drier side, although a few systems will be moving through southern Australia that could provide some needed rainfall for winter wheat and canola. Fronts will graze southwest Australia into next week and there could be heavier rainfall with a stronger front early next week. Warmer temperatures are also expected to build in western areas early next week and expand east throughout the week.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Wheat harvest is underway across the North China Plain and relatively dry conditions have led to favorable conditions for harvest. Showers will become more widespread by the weekend, but the return of a drier pattern looks possible again by early next week.

Developing corn and soybeans could use more rainfall, but showers will likely not be consistent enough into next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures ear to above normal south and below normal north.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal south and below normal north Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and near to above normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Thursday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers southwest Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

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