Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Drought reduction in the North-Central U.S., continued wet weather across the south, and patches of dryness in Europe, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

RAIN FORECAST INCREASING FOR THE MIDWEST

Recent widespread heavy precipitation has favored increasing soil moisture across the vast majority of the Midwest over the last 10 days. Another system in the Plains may spread showers into the southwestern portions of the region through the weekend, then possibly across the region next week. Those that still have planting to do could be delayed across the south where it has been and continues to be too wet. Cold temperatures will be in place through a good portion of next week before rising later next week. Frost is not a very likely concern but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas across the far north. Temperatures will rise going into June.

MORE RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system will slowly move through the Central and Southern Plains with scattered showers continuing into early next week and some showers may follow that later next week as well. Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain, and some areas are getting too dry, but recent rainfall has been significant and favorable for building soil moisture and reducing drought across Nebraska and other areas as well. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week, which should keep stress down for those drier areas.

DROUGHT REDUCTION IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Recent widespread heavy precipitation in the Northern Plains has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought. Additional rain will move through into the weekend and possible early next week. Temperatures will remain cold through into next week but go on a warming trend going into June.

MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR DELTA THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Yet another system will bring showers into the Delta on Friday and continue through the middle of next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures will be much cooler through next week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

DRIER STRETCH FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some showers will be possible in Alberta on Friday, but another favorable planting window is opening for the end of the month in the Canadian Prairies, which should allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures have limited germination and early growth, with some patchy frost this week that has not been a major concern. Otherwise, temperatures will rise next week, and conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.

FRONT IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL PRODUCING SHOWERS

A front will bounce around southern Brazil into early next week, offering some potential rainfall. The front will get a push north, getting into south-central Brazil before dying out in the middle of next week. Those in Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state, would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers should make it into Parana and likely Mato Grosso do Sul in the middle of next week to provide some benefit for filling safrinha corn. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture as is usual for this time of year. Early harvest should begin over the next couple of weeks.

NORTHERN EUROPE GETTING SOME NEEDED RAINFALL

A system across the Mediterranean is finally exiting to the east on Friday, after providing widespread favorable rainfall to the southern and portions of the eastern Europe this week. Systems moving through northern Europe this weekend and next week should bring through some beneficial rainfall, though amounts are not expected to be widespread heavy like the region needs. Drier conditions over the last few months have been worrisome for some in France, Germany, and the UK and the region needs rain quickly for reproductive winter grains. Only some areas will get hit with needed moisture while other, particularly in much of France, will get missed.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION IN ANOTHER DRY STRETCH

Streaks of scattered showers have brought some needed rainfall over eastern areas of the Black Sea region over the last few weeks, though long-term deficits remain. Additional showers will likely occur for western areas into next week. The pattern is starting to turn a little drier for southwestern Russia, which may impact reproductive to filling winter wheat and emerging corn. Showers may return there later next week.

PATCHY RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Though some showers moved through Western Australia and New South Wales this week, recent dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the country's wheat belt. A couple of systems may try to bring showers to the country for the end of the month, but rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

LIMITED RAINFALL IN CHINA

Drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. Very little precipitation is forecast here through the end of the month and into early June. Northern corn and soybean areas are in better shape with soil moisture, but have also been very cold lately, which has likely slowed planting progress. Temperatures will be increasing next week to be more favorable. Showers here are also forecast to be more isolated.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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