Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

This week was a much more active week of weather across the Canadian Prairies. As suggested last week, the weather pattern would allow for rounds of showers to move through the region, falling favorably over areas that started to get a little too dry and following an advanced seeding progress across the region.

Indeed, it has. Saskatchewan and Manitoba continued to maintain their fervent pace, and both provinces showcased faster-than-normal seeding paces. Saskatchewan advanced to 49% complete, well ahead of the average pace of 32%. Manitoba increased its seeding to 33%, ahead of the 25% average pace for the date. Alberta's crop report for this week will come out after this writing, but last week's progress indicated it, too, was well ahead of the normal pace. At 23% complete compared to 12% on average.

Much of the region received good rainfall this week. Amounts over 25 millimeters (about one inch) were estimated by DTN across most of Alberta, eastern Saskatchewan, and almost all of Manitoba. Several streaks early this week were followed by a strong storm system that wrapped up in the U.S. Northern Plains and spread heavy rain through eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. That rain is winding down on Friday, May 16, but should be good to boost soil moisture. This part of the region underwent summer-like temperatures over 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) earlier this week with sunny skies and breezy winds. Some areas of Manitoba saw temperatures approach 35 degrees C (95 degrees F), so it was very nice to see the rain return to the region.

According to the North American Drought Monitor, almost the entire region was devoid of drought at the end of April. Only spots in the east showed abnormal dryness. However, dryness in early May likely caused that dryness to expand and deepen. Soil moisture estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada showcase below-normal soil moisture before the rains started to move in this week.

One spot that was left out was southeastern Alberta into western Saskatchewan. Rainfall amounts were largely less than five millimeters (0.20 inches), and some spots were left completely dry. That would lead to lower soil moisture after the warmer temperatures early this week.

But temperatures fell drastically as the system in the U.S. spun up. Below-normal temperatures have infiltrated the region and should last through most of next week. Some patchy areas of frost will be possible through Monday, May 19, but mostly over eastern sections of the region. Hard frosts may be possible in some low-lying areas, but should not be widespread, causing little damage.

Chances for showers will remain possible all of next week as well. The weather pattern is setting up to favor small disturbances traversing the region, bringing isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms. The southwestern corner of the region is favored by the most consistent shower chances. That includes drier southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan that missed out on this week's rainfall. However, amounts do not look all that heavy, with only some lucky spots eclipsing more than 15 millimeters (0.60 inches). This active, but drier pattern is likely to continue through the rest of May with little chance for a big, widespread rainfall event for the region. Though the rains this week have been largely favorable, we could start to see some issues cropping up in the weeks ahead if this does not change.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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